Anticipated Delays in British Trade, According to Klöckner
The end of the Brexit transition period and subsequent trade changes between the EU (including Germany) and the UK have introduced a range of delays, costs, and impacts on agricultural exports, with mixed consequences for German agricultural trade.
### Expected Delays and Costs
The new EU-UK trade deal finalized in May 2025 introduces sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks and tariffs. These checks and tariffs will cause delays and increase compliance costs for agricultural goods crossing the border, such as wheat and other food products. UK wheat exporters, specifically, face around a 3.7% volume decline in exports to the EU due to these checks and tariffs, which implies additional administrative burdens and border delays affecting supply chains.
Despite some regulatory alignment, the UK maintains core Brexit red lines, such as no customs union and no internal market access, which maintain barriers to trade. This restricts seamless cross-border trade and adds potential costs due to tariffs and customs procedures.
### Costs and Impact on German Agricultural Exports
The EU-UK trade deal creates significant hurdles for exporters. For UK products imported into the EU, including Germany, increased costs and delays may reduce competitiveness. Similarly, EU exporters to the UK benefit from certain streamlined protocols, but UK exporters face volume drops and tariff compliance costs.
Market access and regulatory divergence also pose challenges. Although the UK government has agreed to limited regulatory alignment with EU food and agricultural standards, persistent differences remain that can cause trade disruptions. Differing standards on animal welfare and food safety might lead to extra inspections and documentation requirements, increasing costs for German exporters to the UK and vice versa.
The EUR/USD exchange rate also affects competitiveness in global markets. A strengthening euro relative to other currencies may reduce export attractiveness outside the EU, compounding challenges posed by Brexit-related trade frictions.
### Broader Trade Impact
Official data shows a decrease in exports to the EU by 4.3% in goods overall, including machinery and transport equipment, which is partly linked to Brexit-related trade complexities. While this is not specific to agriculture, it indicates a general trend of trade disruption affecting exports to EU markets, including Germany.
### Summary
Increased border checks and SPS controls cause delays in agricultural shipments. Additional tariffs, compliance, and regulatory divergence increase costs. German and EU agricultural exporters face volume declines and reduced competitiveness in UK markets, while UK exporters suffer from similar barriers entering the EU. These dynamics suggest ongoing trade friction post-transition period, with significant impacts on the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of German agricultural exports to the UK and vice versa, requiring exporters to adapt to new regulatory and commercial realities.
Federal Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner (CDU) anticipates delays in trade with the UK at the end of the transition period. If you need more detailed country-specific data or sector-specific outlooks, further trade and customs reports could be consulted.
- The UK's Brexit red lines, such as no customs union and no internal market access, contribute to costs due to tariffs and customs procedures, causing delays in the industry of agriculture trade between the UK and Germany.
- As a result of increased border checks and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) controls, there are additional burdens and delays affecting the general news of agricultural supply chains, potentially affecting the politics of policy-and-legislation regarding trade-and-commerce.
- War-and-conflicts in the global context may further complicate matters, as they can disrupt trade and increase costs for German agricultural exports to the UK, considering the mixed consequences of the Brexit transition period on these exports.
- Migration patterns could be affected due to economic factors such as the costs and delays caused by the Brexit trade changes, potentially impacting the labor force available in the agricultural industry of both the UK and Germany.
