Anticipated Stock Surge Predicted by Analyst
In the current economic climate, investors are weighing their options, with the stock markets showing exceptional performance in 2024. The S&P 500, for instance, has risen by 23 percent, while the DAX has gained 15 percent. This growth has sparked discussions about the market's future trajectory, with some analysts offering insights into what lies ahead.
One such analyst is Ari Wald, a technical analyst at Oppenheimer. Wald has noted that momentum indicators suggest below-average market risk for the coming months. This finding aligns with Oppenheimer's overall positive outlook for the rally continuing into 2025.
However, the RSI indicator, which measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions, reached 71 in August. While a high RSI (above 70) typically indicates an overbought condition, which may point to a potential price pullback or consolidation, the current market trend does not seem to be following this pattern. Historically, the S&P 500 has continued its upward trajectory beyond July 2025, with an average July gain of 3.4% and further upside in the second half of the year.
This discrepancy between the RSI indicator and the market's actual behaviour suggests that the stock market may still have room to grow. If the RSI indicator proves accurate again, further price increases can be expected before the current bull market reaches its actual peak.
For investors who expect a correction earlier, the current higher prices could be an opportunity to take profits or reduce savings plans to build an investment reserve. This investment reserve could be used countercyclically in the event of a market downturn.
It's important to note that while the RSI indicator offers valuable insights, it should not be the only factor considered when making investment decisions. The broader analyst consensus for 2025 and beyond suggests moderate but steady growth for the S&P 500, with price targets rising moderately and a bullish bias overall.
In conclusion, the S&P 500 is expected to maintain a moderate bullish trend in the coming months, aligned with general analyst forecasts and historical momentum patterns. Investors are advised to stay informed about macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and earnings, which remain important downside risks. For buy & hold investors, a better choice may exist over any ETF, although the specific stock is not mentioned in the provided text.
Investors might find opportunities in the stock-market, as the S&P 500 is predicted to maintain a moderate bullish trend, with further price increases potentially expected. However, some analysts recommend building an investment reserve, as a market downturn remains an important downside risk that should be considered during financial planning and investing.
