Anticipated substantial Ebitda growth in the double digits for RIL
Reliance Industries (RIL), India's largest private sector conglomerate, is expected to report a record Q1 FY26 EBITDA, according to various institutional analysts.
Kotak Institutional Equities provides the clearest quantification, projecting a consolidated EBITDA growth of about 15.4% year-on-year in Q1 FY26. The growth is anticipated to be driven by approximately 19-20% year-on-year expansion in the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C), Digital (Jio), and Retail segments. This growth, however, is partially offset by challenges in Exploration & Production (E&P).
Kotak Institutional Equities also expects a 19-20% year-on-year EBITDA increase for the O2C, digital, and retail segments. The growth in the retail segment is forecast to be particularly robust, with a predicted high-teens EBITDA growth year-on-year from Q1 FY26 onward.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and CLSA have also expressed optimism about RIL's Q1 FY26 performance. They highlight strong momentum in RIL's consumer businesses (Jio and Retail) and stable or improving performance in O2C for FY26 based on prior trends and analyst commentary.
The accelerated growth in Q2 Ebitda is attributed to further strength in refining, with no plant maintenance, lower crude premiums, and strong diesel cracks. Goldman Sachs expects retail Ebitda growth to accelerate further to 19% in Q1FY26.
Kotak assumes a blended ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) of Rs209.5 (1.6% qoq, ~15% yoy). The growth in RIL's Q1 Ebitda is expected to be driven by strong performance in refining, telecom, and retail segments.
Morgan Stanley predicts telecom should show approximately 6.5 million subscriber net adds QoQ with a slight increase in ARPU. Jio may add nearly 9-10 million subscribers during Q1FY26 versus over 6 million in full-year FY25.
CLSA expects RIL to show notable improvements in key performance indicators across major business segments starting from Q1FY26. The exact segment-wise Q1 FY26 EBITDA numbers for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and CLSA are not explicitly detailed in the available data.
It's important to note that Reliance Industrial Infrastructure's Q1FY26 results show a profit growth of 6.8%, but revenue remains stagnant. This is not directly related to RIL's EBITDA but included for context.
In conclusion, analysts predict a strong performance for RIL in Q1 FY26, with a focus on the retail and oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segments. The growth in EBITDA is expected to be driven by the strong performance in refining, telecom, and retail segments.
Investors looking forward to the defi market might find interest in Reliance Industries (RIL), as various analysts, including Kotak Institutional Equities, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and CLSA, have expressed optimism about RIL's Q1 FY26 performance. The growth in EBITDA is predicted to stem from strong performance in RIL's refining, telecom, and retail segments. Specifically, Kotak Institutional Equities expects a 19-20% year-on-year EBITDA increase for the oil-to-chemicals, digital, and retail segments, with the retail segment showing particularly robust growth. Goldman Sachs expects retail EBITDA growth to accelerate further to 19% in Q1FY26.
