Approximately one-fifth of financial leaders assert that the United States has already experienced a recession.
In a recent survey conducted by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA), a majority of business leaders anticipate a U.S. recession either currently underway or expected by the end of 2026. The survey, which gathered responses from 328 CPAs and chartered global management accountants in leadership positions, reveals a significant shift from optimism to caution as businesses brace for economic volatility.
The survey results indicate that 61% of executives believe the U.S. is either already in a recession or will enter one by the end of 2026. Among those who anticipate a recession, 75% believe it will be mild rather than severe. This cautious sentiment is reflected in the responses regarding uncertainty over tariffs, with approximately 40% of respondents characterizing their uncertainty as moderate, and another 27% describing it as significant.
The uncertainty around tariffs is amplifying this shift, with more than half of the respondents (51%) experiencing some level of uncertainty. However, it's worth noting that 23% said they've only experienced minor uncertainty over tariffs, and 10% said tariffs have been "insignificant."
The data from the AICPA's survey aligns with other recent surveys of finance leaders, with 60% of audit partners citing a recession as the largest economic risk for the businesses they work with. Moreover, 63% of respondents in the Center for Audit Quality's survey pointed to "trade issues" as the largest economic risk.
In response to these economic uncertainties, businesses are revising their expectations, according to Tom Hood, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the AICPA and CIMA. This revision is evident in delayed hiring, investment, and expansion plans, as well as lowering key performance indicators.
These findings suggest a significant level of pessimism about the near-term economic outlook among financial professionals, reflecting a cautious sentiment despite some expectations for the recession to be less damaging than past downturns. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, it's crucial for businesses to remain adaptable and proactive in their strategies to navigate these challenging times.
- Sixty-one percent of the executives surveyed believe the U.S. is either already in a recession or will enter one by the end of 2026, with 75% of those anticipating a mild recession rather than a severe one.
- Sixty percent of audit partners cite a recession as the largest economic risk for the businesses they work with, while 63% of respondents in the Center for Audit Quality's survey point to "trade issues" as the largest economic risk.
- Financial professionals are expressing a significant level of pessimism about the near-term economic outlook, as indicated by delayed hiring, investment, and expansion plans, as well as lowering key performance indicators.
- In light of these economic uncertainties, it's essential for businesses to stay adaptable and proactive in their strategies to navigate these challenging times, remaining agile to navigate the evolving economic landscape.
