Aviation decarbonization for sustainability in Latin America: Implementation Strategies
Aiming for Zero: Decarbonizing Aviation in Latin America
With air travel on the rise and aviation accounting for about 2% of global carbon emissions, it's no secret that the sector needs to slash its carbon footprint if we're to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has set a target to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, but can it really be done? A team of researchers from MIT has been delving into this very question, focusing on Latin America where emissions are expected to double by mid-century.
One potential solution they've found is the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), currently produced from low- and zero-carbon sources like municipal waste and non-food crops. This fuel can perform just as well as petroleum-based jet fuel with as low as 20% of its carbon footprint. To explore the viability of SAF in the region, the researchers focused on Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru.
Under an ambitious emissions mitigation scenario, SAF could potentially reduce aviation emissions by about 60% by 2050 compared to a scenario in which existing climate policies are not strengthened. However, to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, other measures such as efficiency improvements, airplane fleet renewal, alternative forms of propulsion, and carbon offsets and removals would also be needed.
As of 2024, jet fuel prices in Latin America are around $0.70 per liter. Based on the current availability of feedstocks, SAF costs within the six countries studied range from $1.11 to $2.86 per liter. Price hikes could impact the operating costs of the aviation sector and overall demand, so strategies to manage price increases need to be implemented.
In the next 25 years, capital investments required to build new SAF producing plants in the six countries range from $5 billion in Ecuador to $84 billion in Brazil. Sugarcane- and corn-based ethanol-to-jet fuel, as well as palm oil- and soybean-based hydro-processed esters and fatty acids, are the most promising feedstock sources in the near term for SAF production in Latin America.
"Sustainable decarbonization while enhancing the region's connectivity and the ability of disadvantaged communities to access air transport" is the goal, says Sergey Paltsev, lead author of the report and MIT CS3 deputy director. Policy frameworks, regional collaboration, and economically viable measures will be key in making this vision a reality.
Government policy, stable regulations, and market-based mechanisms will be necessary to make SAF commercially viable as the aviation industry decarbonizes. Without these elements, SAF requirements will affect the cost of air travel. A unified decarbonization strategy among all countries in the region will help ensure competitiveness, economies of scale, and long-term carbon emissions reduction.
"Latin America has the potential to become a major player in SAF production," says Angelo Gurgel, a principal research scientist at MIT CS3. With the right policies, investments, and partnerships, the aviation industry can take a significant step forward in its mission to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Financial support for this study was provided by LATAM Airlines and Airbus.
Key Strategies for Achieving Net-Zero Emissions in the Aviation Sector:
- Increased Adoption of SAF: Scaling up production and cost reduction through economies of scale and technological advancements
- Regional Cooperation: Policy alignment and collaborative procurement programs
- New Technologies and Infrastructure: Investing in new aircraft technologies and air traffic management systems
- Carbon Capture and Operational Efficiency: Implementing carbon capture technologies and optimizing operational efficiency
Economically Viable Measures:
- Investment in SAF Infrastructure: Public-private partnerships and economic incentives
- Market-Based Mechanisms: Carbon pricing, emissions trading, and offsetting
- Education and Awareness: Consumer awareness campaigns to increase demand for SAF
Regional Considerations for Latin America:
- Local Feedstock Development: Utilizing local biomass resources for SAF production
- Government Support: Encouraging subsidies, tax breaks, or other incentives for SAF production and adoption
- Integration with Existing Infrastructure: Upgrading or building new facilities to incorporate SAF production
- The aviation sector, responsible for about 2% of global carbon emissions, must reduce its carbon footprint to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
- One possible solution being researched is the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), produced from waste and non-food crops, which has a smaller carbon footprint than petroleum-based jet fuel.
- In Latin America, SAF could decrease aviation emissions by approximately 60% by 2050 under an ambitious emissions mitigation scenario.
- However, to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, measures like efficiency improvements, airplane fleet renewal, alternative propulsion, and carbon offsets and removals would also be necessary.
- As of 2024, jet fuel prices in Latin America are around $0.70 per liter, while SAF costs range from $1.11 to $2.86 per liter in the six countries studied.
- To address potential price increases, strategies to manage costs need to be implemented within the aviation sector.
- Over the next 25 years, building new SAF-producing plants in the six countries studied will require investments ranging from $5 billion in Ecuador to $84 billion in Brazil.
- Sugarcane- and corn-based ethanol-to-jet fuel, as well as palm oil- and soybean-based hydro-processed esters and fatty acids, are promising feedstock sources for SAF production in Latin America.
- To make SAF commercially viable, government policy, stable regulations, and market-based mechanisms will be essential.
- Without these elements, SAF requirements may affect the cost of air travel, so a unified decarbonization strategy among all countries in the region will help ensure competitiveness, economies of scale, and long-term carbon emissions reduction.
- With the right policies, investments, and partnerships, Latin America could become a significant player in SAF production, helping the aviation industry progress towards its net-zero emissions goal by 2050.
- Key strategies for achieving net-zero emissions in the aviation sector include increased SAF adoption, regional cooperation, new technologies and infrastructure, carbon capture, and operational efficiency, as well as economically viable measures like investment in SAF infrastructure, market-based mechanisms, and consumer awareness campaigns.
