Bitcoin Owners from the Older Age Group Indicate Potential Sales Exhaustion – Explanation Required
Fresh Take:
Recently, analysts at Glassnode noticed a shift in Bitcoin's older holders, who have been leading the market's correction sell-off, showing signs of sell-off exhaustion. This development might be favorable for Bitcoin's future price movements.
According to a Glassnode tweet, the three-to-five-year Bitcoin holder cohort is slowing down on their BTC sales, following their resumption of selling in April and noticeably depleting their supply share.
Our website reported last week that Bitcoin investors in the one-to-five-year age group recorded a considerable spending spike, reaching an aggregate volume of $4.02 billion. This investor group consists of one- to two-year, two- to three-year, and three- to five-year holders.
These investors have made significant BTC purchases during Bitcoin's rallies in March, October, November 2024, and February 2025. The most recent spending spike is the fifth-largest in this bull cycle, with the three-to-five-year age cohort leading with $2.16 billion. Glassnode mentioned that this figure represented their second-largest outflow of the cycle, following $6 billion in March 2024.
Moreover, Glassnode's latest findings suggest that the three-to-five-year cohort reached an all-time high (ATH) of 15.7% in supply on November 9, 2024, a level unmatched since March 2017. After hitting the ATH, this group began selling, stopped temporarily, and resumed again in April 2025. Currently, their supply share stands at 11.9%, which is significantly above the cycle low of approximately 3%, demonstrating a pause in sales.
Glassnode states that this represents a significant overhang, and this group, which still holds a substantial amount of wealth, tends to sell into strength. While the three-year to five-year cohort is exhibiting signs of sell-off exhaustion, they are expected to sell when Bitcoin prices rise further, considering their supply share still hovers around 12%.
As older Bitcoin holders refrain from cashing out at the moment, the next significant price surge for Bitcoin may be just around the corner. However, when these investors eventually take profit, Bitcoin will likely face significant resistance during the rally.
Bonus Insights:
- Reduced Selling Pressure: With older Bitcoin holders selling less, overall supply decreases, potentially leading to an increase in demand and a potential price surge.
- Increased Confidence: When established holders hold their positions, it can boost confidence among new investors, spurring increased buying activity and potential price increases.
- Market Sentiment Shift: The absence of significant selling from older holders could encourage both institutional and retail investors to buy more, as they perceive a more stable market with less downward pressure.
- Technical Analysis: Continued accumulation by whales and reduced selling pressure can reinforce bullish technical indicators, leading to further price increases and breakout potential.
- Price Projections: Some forecasts expect Bitcoin to reach prices between $120,000 and $250,000 in 2025, impacted by factors like macroeconomic conditions and institutional adoption[2][5].
- Market Volatility: Despite reduced selling exhaustion, Bitcoin remains volatile. Significant global economic shifts or regulatory changes may still impact its price.
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- As the three-to-five-year Bitcoin holder cohort shows signs of reducing selling pressure, there might be an increase in demand for Bitcoin, potentially leading to a price surge due to the decreased supply.
- The notable shift in technology, such as the reduced sell-off exhaustion among older Bitcoin holders, can boost investor confidence in the crypto finance market, leading to increased buying activity and potentially higher prices driven by increased institutional and retail investment.
