Central Bank Key Rate Forecast by Economist Konstantin Yurchenko: 7.5% Reduction Expected
Rewritten Article
In 2025, the economic landscape of Russia is expected to see an encouraging shift, as inflation is projected to dip down to a manageable range of 7-8%. This optimistic forecast was dropped by Konstantin Yurchenko, a Ph.D. in Economics, serving as the head of the regional economic analysis department at the Ural Main Office of the Bank of Russia, on the fringes of the "Finmarket" forum.
High inflation has long been fueled by business and consumer expectations. Yet, these expectations are gradually waning. In select market segments that have felt the brunt of high key rates, consumer activity has seen a noticeable slowdown. By the end of 2025, we can anticipate a reduction in inflation to 7-8%, with a target of 4% being achieved by 2026.
The anticipated decrease in inflation will allow the key rate to be reduced to 13-14% in 2026 and further down to 7.5-8.5% in 2027. This prognosis was shared by the expert, who also noticed that while economic growth rates are cooling off, business activity remains robust.
Interestingly, savings activity among the populace remains high, with a significant portion of their financial assets staying in deposits. This points to a strong sense of trust among Russians in the banking system, as per Konstantin Yurchenko's observations.
In the past, Konstantin Yurchenko shared his thoughts on the global inflation crisis with our platform. He attributed it to the challenges posed by the 2020 crisis, which left production and transportation systems woefully unprepared. The ensuing changes in supply chains had a marked impact on the B2B sector.
When it comes to Konstantin Yurchenko's personal predictions on Russian inflation, it's prudent to refer to his specific statements or publications. However, some factors that commonly contribute to a decrease in inflation include tightening monetary policy, fiscal policy adjustments, supply chain improvements, reductions in global commodity prices, economic sanctions and trade restrictions, currency fluctuations, and reduced consumer spending. Each of these factors plays a crucial role in shaping economic analyses.
"I'm not sure if the decrease in inflation will be sufficient to spark a significant increase in business activity, considering the strong savings culture Among Russians."
"In relation to the forecasted 7-8% inflation rate in 2025, it's worth noting that reducing it further to the target of 4% by 2026 might require a clear strategy in finance and economic management."
