Commerzbank following Verdoppler 2025: What's the plan moving forward?
In the world of finance, speculation about a potential takeover of Commerzbank by UniCredit has been making waves. This intriguing scenario is rooted in UniCredit's strategic increase of its stake in Commerzbank to 20.17%, just under the 29.9% threshold that would legally trigger a mandatory takeover bid under German rules [1][3].
This move, primarily through converting derivatives into shares, is designed to strengthen UniCredit's influence without crossing the legal threshold, allowing UniCredit to apply pressure on Commerzbank without initiating a full acquisition. However, this strategic maneuver has met with strong political and regulatory resistance in Germany [1][2][4].
Chancellor Friedrich Merz and other German officials view UniCredit’s advances as a "hostile takeover" attempt. The German government, which holds a 12.1% stake in Commerzbank, supports defending the bank's independence due to its national significance and role in financing small and medium enterprises. This opposition complicates UniCredit's ambitions and highlights tensions between banking consolidation and national sovereignty in Europe.
Meanwhile, Commerzbank's share price has surged significantly. In 2024, the share price increased by about 90%, and during 2024–2025, it jumped up to 160%. This impressive growth can be attributed to merger speculation, improved earnings guidance, and proactive defensive measures such as a €1 billion share buyback program and a policy to pay out 100% of net results as dividends. These actions aim to sustain and enhance shareholder value, making a takeover less attractive by increasing Commerzbank’s valuation and rewarding current investors [1][2].
Yesterday, Commerzbank shares were the top performer in the DAX, closing with a gain of 4.5 percent. The surge in Commerzbank's share price may be related to the takeover rumors, although it is important to note that these rumors are not confirmed at this time.
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[1] "UniCredit builds stake in Commerzbank to 20.17%" - Reuters [2] "German government opposes UniCredit's advances on Commerzbank" - Financial Times [3] "UniCredit's stake-building in Commerzbank: A strategic move or hostile takeover attempt?" - Handelsblatt [4] "Banking consolidation and national sovereignty: The Commerzbank-UniCredit saga" - The Economist
Investors seeking to capitalize on business developments in the European banking sector might find interest in the ongoing speculation about UniCredit's potential takeover of Commerzbank. Despite strong political and regulatory resistance, UniCredit's strategic maneuver of increasing its stake in Commerzbank to influence the bank without crossing the legal threshold has resulted in Commerzbank's shares becoming a top performer in the DAX.
In recent years, Commerzbank's share price has experienced remarkable growth due to merger speculation, improved earnings guidance, and proactive measures designed to reward shareholders, making a takeover less attractive and increasing the bank’s valuation.
