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In the automotive world, a significant shift is underway. Manual transmissions, once a staple in cars, are becoming less common in new-car registrations. This transformation is driven by a combination of factors, including consumer preference, regulatory cost burdens, and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs).
Modern automatic transmissions have made impressive strides, optimizing gear shifts with precision. This results in improved fuel economy and reduced emissions, making them more appealing to the environmentally-conscious consumer. Automatic transmissions are also proving less environmentally impactful than their manual counterparts.
One manufacturer bucking this trend is Toyota, which is developing a simulated manual transmission system for EVs. The aim is to preserve the engaging experience of driving a manual car, even in electric vehicles. Toyota's proposed manual EV system includes a physical gear stick, clutch pedal, and artificial engine sounds to mimic the behavior of a traditional manual transmission.
The decline of manual transmissions is evident in the UK, where as of 2025, over 1.3 million Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are on the roads, up 38.9% year on year. The number of new car models with manual gearboxes has sharply decreased, with only 96 models currently offering it compared to over 400 that are automatic-only. This reduces consumer choice and familiarity with manuals.
The high development and certification costs for manual versions, coupled with diminishing demand, make it financially unjustifiable for manufacturers to continue offering them. The growth of EVs, which do not require multi-gear transmissions, further limits manual availability and new driver interest.
Enthusiasts may lament the loss of manuals, but mainstream consumer priorities favor ease and convenience. As a result, automakers are responding by focusing on automatics. Specific segments like muscle cars and exotics have historically favored manuals, but even these are moving away due to packaging and regulatory constraints.
The UK has a zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate that requires manufacturers to sell an increasing percentage of zero-emission vehicles each year. The growth in popularity of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) is one reason for the decline in manual gearbox uptake.
In 2024, the number of electric vehicles (EVs) delivered worldwide increased by 26.1%. These vehicles use a single-speed transmission. The ZEV mandate and other similar regulations in Europe are driving demand for cleaner, compliant vehicle technologies, including automatic transmissions.
The EU has introduced more stringent CO2 emission standards that will tighten over time, leading to a planned ban on the sale of new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035. France has a malus scheme for cars that cause pollution, which is pushing buyers towards cars without a manual transmission.
In the UK, automatic gearboxes now outsell new cars with a manual gearbox. This trend is likely to continue as automakers focus on developing advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) features that are only compatible with automatic transmissions.
Toyota plans to introduce its simulated manual EV system in production models around 2026, targeting driving enthusiasts seeking a more interactive EV experience. Rapid developments in automatic gearbox technology have made the option less of a binary choice and have blurred the lines between the different driving experiences.
In conclusion, the decline of manual transmissions in new car registrations is a result of various factors, including consumer preference, regulatory cost burdens, reduced model availability, and the rise of EVs. However, innovations like Toyota's simulated manual EV system suggest that the manual transmission may not be entirely disappearing, but simply evolving to meet the needs of a changing automotive landscape.
[1] https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-manual-cars-uk-sales-fall-sharp-decline [2] https://www.motor1.com/news/438243/toyota-manual-ev-gearbox/ [3] https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200305-why-is-the-manual-car-dying-out
- The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and stringent CO2 emission standards in the EU have led to a decline in the demand for manual transmissions, making it financially unjustifiable for manufacturers to continue offering them.
- Despite the decline in manual transmissions, Toyota is innovating by developing a simulated manual transmission system for EVs, which could create a niche market for driving enthusiasts who prefer a more interactive EV experience.
- The shift from manual to automatic transmissions in the automotive industry is influenced by factors such as consumer preference for ease and convenience, regulatory cost burdens, and the growth of electric vehicles, which typically use single-speed transmissions.
