Could a strengthening macro environment potentially propel Ethereum to reach $3K as gold weakens?
Ethereum [ETH] might be all set to soar in the second half of 2025, according to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe. While gold peaked at $3.5K in Q2, causing a risk-on market, its subsequent drop towards $3.2K indicates a return to risk-on markets.
"Gold broke down into the range, therefore likely peaking for the coming 6-12 months, indicating that it's risk-on time," van de Poppe stated.
A similar risk-on scenario could materialize after a shaky Israel-Iran ceasefire deal, potentially pushing ETH prices higher. The analyst forecasts ETH could escalate to $3K, and further surges could be in the offing if the Chinese yuan (CNH/USD) rises against the US dollar, a move that typically boosts the value of ETH/BTC.
In Q3, Federal Reserve (Fed) rate expectations could impact ETH's price. During a recent hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential July inflation print deciding a possible interest rate cut. While the odds of a July rate cut stands at 18%, the market appears more confident of a Fed rate cut in September, with over 70% odds.
A potential Fed rate cut in Q3 could escalate the risk-on sentiment further, supporting van de Poppe's $3K price target. However, the overall sentiment in the options market appears neutral to negative, with the risk reversal for July being negative, while August and September temper at 0 and 0.32, respectively.
In the short term, an on-chain resistance lies around the $2.4K-$2.6K price range, and a significant amount of supply was bought at this level, which could serve as selling pressure if holders decide to liquidate their assets.
In the grander scheme of things, the shifting macro environment could favor bulls in Q3. However, the typical summer lull may delay the celebration for ETH bulls, as highlighted by the options market sentiment.
Ethereum's Opportunity Knocks?
Historical data show that ETH has often demonstrated resilience amid macroeconomic headwinds. Noteworthy, ETH's 53% surge in May 2021 coincided with a risk-off move as gold dropped nearly 10%.
Analysts have identified several bullish trends and patterns on Ethereum charts, such as an ascending triangle pattern, bullish flags, and Morning Star formations. These suggest continued upward momentum, and some are optimistically predicting ETH to reach $3,800 or even $4,000 in Q3 2021, given sustained positive volume trends.
However, it's essential to consider that the overall sentiment in the options market remains cautious, as indicated by the negative to neutral market sentiment into the summer. Therefore, while the bullish outlook remains, ETH investors must remain vigilant and closely monitor macroeconomic indicators and options market data to make well-informed decisions.
- The crypto analyst, Michael van de Poppe, predicts Ethereum (ETH) could reach $3K in the second half of 2025, which might be triggered by a similar risk-on scenario as the one following a potential shaky Israel-Iran ceasefire deal.
- In Q3, a potential Fed rate cut could escalate the risk-on sentiment further, supporting van de Poppe's $3K price target for ETH. However, the overall sentiment in the options market remains cautious, with negative to neutral sentiments into the summer.
- While ETH has often demonstrated resilience amid macroeconomic headwinds, such as its 53% surge in May 2021 during a risk-off move, it's crucial for ETH investors to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators and options market data to make well-informed decisions.
