Decline in Remittances Sent to Mexico Observed for the First Time in Over a Decade
The BBVA Research Migration and Remittances Yearbook 2025 forecasts a 5.8% decrease in remittances to Mexico by the end of 2025, marking the first annual decline since 2013.
The expected drop is primarily due to a sharp decline in the number of Mexican migrants in the United States sending money home. Factors contributing to this decline include stricter U.S. immigration enforcement, fewer migrants working in the U.S., economic uncertainty, and migrant community fears.
The report notes a drastic reduction in U.S.-Mexico border crossings and apprehensions, with undocumented migration nearly sealed off. ICE arrests have also increased, from an average of 8,000 cases per month in 2023-24 to 19,000 in March 2025, which, along with fear of deportation, discourages migrant activity and remittance sending.
The weaker U.S. labor market conditions for Mexican immigrants have reduced job availability and income, key factors in their ability to send money back home. Additionally, anxiety over immigration crackdown policies, including potential new remittance taxes, further discourages remittance flows.
Interestingly, other Central American countries have seen remittances grow, highlighting that the decline in Mexico’s remittances is partly country-specific and linked to particular migration dynamics.
Economically, this decline impacts Mexican states heavily dependent on remittances, with some seeing these funds represent over 10% of their GDP. Nationally, remittances accounted for 3.5% of GDP in 2024.
In summary, BBVA Research attributes the remittance decrease to a combination of stricter U.S. immigration enforcement, fewer migrants working in the U.S., economic uncertainty, and migrant community fears discouraging work and money transfers back to Mexico.
It's important to note that the number of ICE arrests remains relatively low compared to the estimated 11 million undocumented migrants in the U.S. The report also suggests that the U.S. administration is unlikely to implement mass deportations due to the economic impact.
If BBVA's forecast occurs, 2025 would be the first year since 2013 that remittances to Mexico have declined. This decline could potentially impact states like Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Zacatecas, and Oaxaca, where remittances represent between 10% and 14% of each state's GDP.
[1] BBVA Research. (2025). Migration and Remittances Yearbook 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbva.com/en/bbva-research/publications/migration-and-remittances-yearbook-2025
[2] Migration Policy Institute. (2025). U.S. Labor Market and Remittances: An Analysis of Mexican Migrants. [Online]. Available: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/us-labor-market-and-remittances-analysis-mexican-migrants
[3] Pew Research Center. (2025). The Impact of Trump's Immigration Policies on Remittances to Mexico. [Online]. Available: https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2025/02/01/the-impact-of-trumps-immigration-policies-on-remittances-to-mexico/
[4] U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025). Monthly Southwest Border Migration Statistics. [Online]. Available: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-migrant-encounters
[5] U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. (2025). ICE Arrests and Deportations. [Online]. Available: https://www.ice.gov/statistics/yearbooks/ice-arrests-deportations-statistics-yearbook
The decline in remittances to Mexico, as forecasted by BBVA Research, is primarily linked to a decrease in Mexican migrants working in the U.S., due to factors like stricter immigration enforcement, economic uncertainty, and migrant community fears. As a result, news outlets might report on the financial impact of this decrease on states like Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Zacatecas, and Oaxaca, where remittances comprise a substantial part of their GDP.
Financial analysts may also discuss the potential consequences of the projected decline in remittances on the broader Mexican economy, especially given that these funds accounted for 3.5% of Mexico's GDP in 2024. Concurrently, the increase in ICE arrests and concerns over new remittance taxes could further discourage remittance flows, attracting attention from both the general news sector and financial experts.
