Detrimental Statistics for the North Baltic Waterway Project
The Kiel Canal, a crucial shortcut for maritime shipping between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, has seen a decline in ship passages over the past few years. This decrease is primarily due to incidents and accidents that disrupt traffic flow, such as ships grounding or colliding with canal infrastructure.
One such incident occurred on June 19, 2025, when the French-flagged container ship ECO LEVANT grounded on the northern bank of the Kiel Canal, causing operational delays and disruptions. Such incidents reduce the canal's reliability and throughput, thereby affecting the competitiveness of German ports and industries dependent on timely maritime logistics.
Aging infrastructure and limited capacity can also contribute to bottlenecks, making alternative routes or transport modes more attractive over time. While direct causes beyond accidents are not detailed, these factors commonly contribute to decreased canal passages.
The economic impact on Germany is significant. Increased shipping times and costs, reduced competitiveness of ports, and interruptions in trade flow can lead to congestion and delays, which in turn affect the country's economy. Disruptions can also interrupt inland waterway connections and the broader transportation network, potentially harming economic activities linked to the canal's smooth operation.
Jens-Broder Knudsen, chairman of the Initiative Kiel Canal, has noticed the decline in ship passages. To address the issue, he believes that if the expansion of the canal is completed as planned and the speed limit can be lifted, the canal will become more attractive to shipowners. Currently, the speed limit has been reduced from 15 to 12 km/h due to construction work since July 1, 2023, to protect the eroded banks along the canal.
Reliability is a significant factor in the decision for the canal, as stated by Jan Klein of UCA United Canal Agency. Müller, second elder of the NOKII pilots' guild from Kiel, notes that if the canal passage becomes predictable, the situation will improve.
The annual balance sheet evaluation for the Kiel Canal is taking longer than usual this year. However, traffic statistics, including the number of ships, transported cargo quantities, and ship size, are still being analyzed by the GDWS.
Shipbrokers Sartori & Berger and UCA United Canal Agency have recorded a decrease of up to ten percent in ship passages. This decrease may lead shipowners to take the route around Skagen again, as suggested by Jens-Broder Knudsen, chairman of the Initiative Kiel Canal and managing director of Sartori & Berger.
Repairs to the damaged areas along the Kiel Canal are progressing, and the number of ships passing through the canal in Germany was fewer than 25,000 in 2022, the first time since 1945. Despite this, the middle ship size on the Kiel Canal is getting smaller.
In conclusion, the decrease in ship passages on the Kiel Canal is a complex issue stemming from accidents, aging infrastructure, and unpredictability. Addressing these challenges is crucial to maintaining the canal's economic significance and ensuring the smooth flow of maritime shipping between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea.
The decline in ship passages on the Kiel Canal has potential implications for industries and finance, as German ports may lose their competitiveness due to increased shipping times and costs. Additionally, the decrease in ship passages can affect the transportation sector, as alternatives may become more attractive due to bottlenecks caused by aging infrastructure and limited capacity.
