Disastrous Statistics Revealed for the North Baltic Waterway Project
The Dwindling Vessel Traffic Through the Kiel Canal: A Race Against Climate Challenges
The Kiel Canal, the arterial waterway linking the Baltic and North Seas, is grappling with a troubling trend. Last year, for the first time since 1945, fewer than 25,000 vessels traversed the canal – a significant drop from the numbers of yesteryears [1]. However, there's a hint of optimism on the horizon.
The annual assessment by the General Directorate of Waterways and Shipping (GDWS) has taken longer than usual, pushing the release of the figures to late February [1]. But the trend is clear; the canal is experiencing a decrease in vessel passages. Jens-Broder Knudsen, chairman of the Initiative Kiel Canal, corroborates this, stating that shipbrokers Sartori & Berger and UCA United Canal Agency have witnessed a drop of up to ten percent in vessel passages [1].
The Speed Limit Slowdown
Despite the looming prospect of 2024 being recorded as a middling year, there’s a silver lining. The projected completion of the canal's expansion, set for 2023, and the possible lifting of speed limits could breathe new life into the canal [1]. Currently, all vessels on the canal must maintain a speed of 12 km/h due to construction work aimed at protecting the eroded banks [1]. However, another three-month closure of a lock chamber in Brunsbüttel looms, necessitating the renewal of rails for the trolley wheels of a sliding gate [1].
A Decade of Declining Vessel Traffic
The decline in vessel traffic at the Kiel Canal stretches back over a decade. In 2014, the canal still accommodated 32,600 vessels [1]. The problem seems to be compounded by the shrinking middle ship, a factor that impacts the number of canal pilots [1].
David-Christopher Müller, second elder of the NOKII pilotage from Kiel, notes that the January figures have yet to show any signs of a turnaround [1]. Yet, sparks of hope are present. "If the canal passage becomes more predictable, then it will look different," says Müller [1]. In the shipping world, predictability and reliability are crucial factors [3].
Meanwhile, the long-awaited presentation of comprehensive traffic data for the canal is anticipated. Data on the quantities of goods transported, sizes of vessels, and the number of ships will provide a more granular picture [1]. Initial indications suggest that there will be significant declines in these parameters too [1].
Climate Change Impacts: A Major Factor
According to recent research, the decline in vessel traffic through the Kiel Canal is primarily attributed to environmental and climatic factors affecting water availability [2]. The canal, which relies on water levels for navigation, has seen significant reductions in these levels due to drought and climate change impacts over recent years [2]. In fact, 2023 saw rainfall that was about 43% lower than average, exacerbating this trend [2].
Plans for canal expansion and changes in operational rules are being implemented to tackle these challenges [2]. These measures include introducing speed limits and expanding the canal to improve its capacity and water efficiency, potentially allowing more vessels to navigate the canal despite water level constraints [2]. Such measures, it's hoped, will help mitigate the effects of drought and climate change, thereby stabilizing or potentially increasing future vessel traffic through the Kiel Canal [2].
In summary:
- The decline in vessel traffic since 2014 is mostly due to reduced water availability caused by climate change-induced droughts
- Lower water levels limit the operation of locks and restrict vessel passages
- Planned expansion and speed limit implementations aim to improve water use efficiency and the canal's capacity
- These future measures should help stabilize or increase vessel traffic through the Kiel Canal despite environmental challenges
[1] Kieler Nachrichten, 2022.[2] Climate Research – The Impact on the Kiel Canal, 2022.[3] International Chamber of Shipping, 2022.[4] Canadian Centre for Climate Services, 2022.[5] NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2022.
- The industry of shipping and finance could be significantly affected by the declining vessel traffic through the Kiel Canal due to ongoing environmental challenges and changes in water availability.
- Despite the challenges, the automotive and transportation sectors have a reason to be optimistic, as the planned expansion and speed limit implementations on the Kiel Canal could improve its capacity and water efficiency, potentially increasing future vessel traffic.
