Dismal Numbers Revealed for the North Baltic Waterway Project
The Drop in Shipping Traffic through the Kiel Canal
Germany's economic woes are mirrored in the statistic of ship passages on the Nord-Ostsee-Kanal (NOK). Surprisingly, the canal failed to hit the 25,000 mark in ship passages last year—the first time since 1945. But fear not, there's a sliver of optimism.
The analysis of the annual balance sheet for the NOK isn't exactly a cause for celebration among the canal authorities this year either. According to reports from Kieler Nachrichten, the NOK has seen fewer ships than ever pass through it in the past 75 years.
The review by the responsible General Directorate of Waterways and Shipping (GDWS) is taking longer than usual this year. In previous years, the figures were usually presented to the public in mid-January or early February. This year, it's looking like it'll be at the end of February, if not later.
The trend is already evident. "There was a noticeable decrease in passages through the canal," says Jens-Broder Knudsen, head of the Initiative Kiel Canal, a lobbying organization for the canal. Shipbrokers Sartori & Berger and UCA United Canal Agency report a drop of up to ten percent in ship passages.
Speed restrictions slow down shipping
Even if 2024 will likely go down in history as one of the worst years for the waterway, there's a glimmer of hope. "If the expansion of the canal is completed as planned and the speed limit can be lifted, then we will also become more attractive to ship owners again," says Jens-Broder Knudsen.
Since July 1, 2023, a speed reduction from 15 to 12 km/h has applied to all ships on the canal due to construction work, to protect the eroded slopes along the canal. Fortunately, repairs to the damaged areas are progressing.
However, there's a possibility that a three-month closure of a lock chamber in Brunsbüttel will happen from May, where rails for the trolley wheels of a sliding gate need to be renewed. "These closures don't make things any easier," says Knudsen, "but the construction measure is very important."
The reaction from the ship owners is swift. "Then the route around Skagen will be taken again," says Knudsen, who is also the managing director of Sartori & Berger.
Decade-long decline in ship traffic on the NOK
The number of ships on the NOK has been declining for over a decade now. In 2014, there were still 32,600 ships. "The problem is also that the middle ship is getting smaller," says Knudsen. The fees for the roughly 300 canal pilots are calculated based on this ship.
"We can feel that clearly," says David-Christopher Müller, second senior of the NOKII pilots' guild from Kiel. "January figures so far haven't shown any signs of a trend reversal." But there's a light at the end of the tunnel. "If the canal passage becomes predictable again, things will start looking different," says Müller. "Reliability plays a big role in the decision for the canal."
The recent launch of the "Mannheim I+II" shows a trend toward greener and safer inland shipping, which could revitalize canal traffic with more efficient transport options. Meanwhile, experts are eagerly awaiting the presentation of all traffic data for the canal. Besides the number of ships, the transported cargo quantities and the ship size are essential parameters. It seems that there are also strong declines in these areas. The traffic statistics are still being analyzed at the GDWS.
Insights:
The drop in shipping traffic through the Nord-Ostsee-Kanal in 2024 is a significant setback for Germany's economic transportation infrastructure. Factors contributing to this decline could be temporary maintenance or upgrades in the canal, evolving maritime logistics, and transitional changes in vessel operations. While the impact of reduced traffic extends to economic, logistical, and environmental aspects, the canal's strategic role and planned upgrades or vessel innovations ensure eventual recovery of normal shipping volumes.
- The declining number of ships on the Nord-Ostsee-Kanal over the past decade is also affecting the finance industry, as fewer ships passing through the canal may result in lower revenue for shipbrokers and pilots.
- A solution to increase shipping traffic and potential revenues for the finance industry could be the planned expansion of the canal, which, if completed, might entice more ship owners to use the canal and restore the normal shipping volumes.
