Eastern Europe's energy stability post-disengagement with Russia: a delicate equilibrium of international, domestic politics, and grassroots perspectives
In the wake of Russia's war against Ukraine, three Eastern European countries - Latvia, Moldova, and Ukraine - have taken significant steps to reduce their energy dependence on Russia, recognising the geopolitical risks and economic vulnerabilities exposed by the conflict.
In Latvia, the most dependent EU country on Russian gas, with over 90% of its gas supply coming from Russia, the government has been part of the broader EU strategy to phase out Russian fossil fuels and diversify energy sources. The European Commission’s roadmap aims for a complete phase-out of Russian natural gas by 2027, relying on infrastructure upgrades such as new and expanded LNG terminals and diversification with suppliers like Norway, the U.S., Qatar, and Azerbaijan. Latvia is also likely to have accelerated the deployment of renewable energy and taken measures to secure alternative gas supplies, aligned with EU directives to submit national phase-out plans by the end of 2025.
Moldova, a neighbouring country highly vulnerable to energy disruptions due to the war, has sought to reduce Russian gas dependence by integrating more deeply with the EU energy market. It has benefited from EU-led infrastructure projects and gas supply diversification efforts in Central and Eastern Europe. Moldova’s alignment with EU energy policies aims to enhance energy security and reduce Russian leverage, consistent with the broader regional strategy.
Ukraine's case is unique as the country is simultaneously the frontline of the conflict and a major transit route for Russian gas exports to Europe. Since the invasion, Ukraine has severed ties with Russian energy imports and accelerated reform and diversification efforts. Ukraine is working on developing its own energy resources, increasing renewable energy deployment, and securing alternative supplies from neighboring countries and Europe. The war has also underscored the strategic importance of Ukraine's energy infrastructure and resources, with Russia historically aiming to control assets such as lithium deposits in Ukraine.
The KonKoop In:Security Report examines how these three Eastern European countries have worked to sever their energy ties with Russia. The report, a joint work by scholars from various institutions, highlights how all three countries have accelerated their efforts to break energy ties with Russia, focusing on diversification of suppliers, infrastructure upgrades like LNG terminals, and expanding renewable energy. The EU’s comprehensive plan to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027 plays a crucial role, requiring national phase-out strategies and coordination among member states and neighbours.
Despite challenges, such as Hungary and Slovakia’s resistance to switching away from Russian nuclear fuel, EU countries including Latvia and Moldova are pushing ahead with energy sovereignty initiatives. Moldova has "escaped the Kremlin's grip" by securing alternative energy routes and supplies, while Latvia has disconnected from the BRELL ring, a post-Soviet electricity grid, and banned natural gas imports from Russia.
Ukrainians see themselves as part of the energy system and view their efforts to save energy and pay utility bills as part of the war effort. However, Ukraine's energy security situation is dire, with prolonged power cuts and rolling blackouts now part of everyday life.
This coordinated regional effort highlights how the war has shifted energy policy to prioritize resilience and independence from Russia in Latvia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
In the context of the EU's strategy to phase out Russian fossil fuels, Latvia's financial resources might be allocated towards the deployment of renewable energy and securing alternative gas supplies from international suppliers like Norway, the U.S., Qatar, and Azerbaijan.
Moldova, in an effort to reduce Russian gas dependence, may find itself engaging more closely with the international finance industry to secure funding for infrastructure projects and gas supply diversification initiatives, given the support it has received from EU-led efforts.
