Expert anticipates a 20% decline in automobile sales within Russia
Ina recent report, car sales in Russia are expected to take a significant dip in 2025. Here's the lowdown:
A slide in sales has been forecasted for the entire year, with a 25-27% drop compared to the stellar performance of 2024. What's causing this dip? The price hike due to increased recycling fees and the sky-high Bank of Russia's key rate of 21%, set since October 2024, is the primary culprit. And that's not all: an impressive 50% of cars sold in Russia are on credit, according to an insider.
According to "AutoStat" data, April 2025 saw a whopping 25.5% drop in new light vehicle sales compared to April 2024. Lada still rules the roadways, taking almost 28% of the market share (approximately 28.5 thousand cars), followed closely by Haval and Chery. Interestingly, Chinese brands like Geely, Changan, and Omoda saw a freefall in sales—more than 40% drop year-over-year. But a silver lining for 2025? Solaris showed the highest growth, surging 439.9%, climbing to the top 10 with 6.3 thousand cars sold.
In 2024, "AutoStat" data revealed a soaring 48.4% increase in new light vehicle sales compared to the previous year, making it the highest figure in the last five years. However, Russian dealers are predicting a sales fall for 2025, anywhere between 12% and 25%. If the Bank of Russia's key rate continues its upward trajectory, Maxim Sokolov, the head of "Avtovaz," predicts a 21-30% slide in the car market, potentially down to 1.3-1.4 million cars.
The Telegram channel @expert_mag has more updates on the auto market. Stay tuned!
Here are some eye-opening details:
- 2025 car sales are predicted to decline by a substantial 25-27%. Data shows sales have already dropped by about 25% to 27% from 2024's figures[3][5].
- A sharp decline in sales has been observed in March 2025, plummeting by 46% compared to the same month last year[2].
- Several factors are influencing this car market crisis in 2025, including:
- Financial strain and inflationary pressures impacting consumer purchasing power[3].
- Elevated interest rates curbing consumer demand, shifting power to the buyers but reducing overall sales volumes[5].
- The electric vehicle segment is experiencing a particularly grave downturn, with sales plummeting by 67% in early 2025[5].
- Domestic car production and sales are also on the decline, falling by around 8% compared to the previous year[5].
- Revenues from scrappage fees are falling far short of government budget expectations, potentially jeopardizing related projects tied to these revenues[4].
In a nutshell, the Russian car market in 2025 is experiencing a significant contraction due to economic pressures, weakened consumer demand, especially in electric vehicles, and a mismatch between government fiscal assumptions and reality in scrappage revenue. Additionally, some months have seen even more dramatic drops in sales compared to previous years[2][3][4][5]. Bottom line, it's a tough market out there for automakers.
- The decline in car sales, expected to be around 25-27% in 2025, is seen as a significant contraction for the Russian automotive industry.
- The financial strain and inflationary pressures affecting consumer purchasing power, combined with elevated interest rates, are contributing factors to the reduced consumer demand in the car market.
- The electric vehicle segment, in particular, is experiencing a downturn, with sales decreasing by 67% in early 2025, impacting the overall business of car companies operating in the industry.
