Forecasters Investment Fund Identifies Numerous Threats Potentially Leading to Decrease in 2025
Forecasters Investment Fund Identifies Numerous Threats Potentially Leading to Decrease in 2025
Recent market setbacks.
As the year draws to a close, so do most global market projections, with most major Wall Street institutions forecasting another successful year. However, The Astrologer's Fund anticipates elevated market volatility due to several risks, including global debt and potential recession.
Originating from New York, The Astrologer's Fund is the creation of Harvey Weingarten, who self-proclaims as a cosmic value investor. He explains his investment approach as combining fundamental analysis and astrology for investing, and technical analysis and astrology for trading. This means he invests in undervalued stocks and is an active momentum trader. His focus includes both long-term investments and short-term market fluctuations.
Bracing for Market Corrections in 2025
The theme of the outlook centered around "When will U.S. market euphoria end?"
The current market landscape is marked by inflated asset prices driven by the expensive valuations of the Magnificent 7 – Apple (APPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA).
The big banks remain extremely optimistic, expecting a continuation rally that will lift the S&P 500 by 10% next year.
Weingarten insists that this "euphoria" will eventually fade, predicting three major downturns for the year, each ranging from 5% to 30%. The first downturn occurred on the S&P 500 Index, amounting to a 3.4% drop across a four-day period from Dec. 16 to Dec. 19. The second downturn started the day after Christmas, with the benchmark currently down 2.6% as of Dec. 31. He speculates this could continue until Jan. 19, which may be a turning point for a rally in anticipation of a new administration. The next downturn will occur in June.
The increasing global debt and the possibility of a slowing economy heightens the risk of a correction. Long-term investors should brace for fluctuations, as major asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities may remain overvalued for an extended period.
Over the next 18 months, Weingarten expects a stock market to mirror a "W," with a high risk of downturns due to a combination of unfavorable factors:
· overvalued assets
· tightening credit in banking institutions
· persistent inflation
· weakening labor market
· trade tensions, including potential tariffs and trade wars
· substantial deficits
· international conflicts, including the Ukraine and the Middle East
· historically low cash reserves held by asset managers
The Role of President Trump: A Pro-Market Administration
Weingarten considers the change in political leadership as a significant positive for the stock market, despite the market setting new records under President Biden. He anticipates that President-elect Donald Trump's second term will continue to fuel market optimism through pro-growth policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, and policies aimed at boosting corporate profits and stimulating economic activity.
He believes Jan. 19 could serve as a turning point for the market, based on expectancies that Trump's policies will maintain upward pressure on stock prices in the short term.
Prioritizing Safe Investments and Asset Protection
In an environment characterized by market uncertainty, Weingarten suggests focusing on assets that offer stability and protection against inflation, specifically hard assets like gold and silver, which are generally reliable hedges against economic downturns. He owns gold as both an investment and a portfolio hedge.
Although these assets might be slightly overvalued in the near term, their ability to maintain wealth over time makes them an appealing choice for cautious investors.
Furthermore, Weingarten recommends investing in high-quality stocks with strong dividends and pricing power to navigate market storms. While sectors like biotech and healthcare may experience challenges under the current political climate, there are abundant opportunities in areas such as energy, real estate, and unique circumstances, where market mispricing presents potential high returns.
Over the next two years, investors must be ready for both volatility and potential gains. Success relies on a strategy that combines value investing with an awareness of broader economic and political influencers.
- In light of the potential risks à la global debt and possible recession, The Astrologer's Fund suggests gold and bonds as safe investments, offering stability and protection against inflation.
- Despite the successful year forecasted by major Wall Street institutions, Harvey Weingarten, the creator of The Astrologer's Fund, anticipates market volatility and three significant downturns in 2025.
- Weingarten recommends investing in hard assets like gold and silver, which function as reliable hedges against economic downturns, considering the volatile market conditions predicted for the year ahead.
- As a part of his investment approach, Weingarten combines astrology with both fundamental and technical analysis to navigate the stock market, focusing on both long-term investments and short-term market fluctuations.
- Keen on boosting corporate profits and stimulating economic activity, President Trump's second term is seen as a potential positive force for the stock market based on Weingarten's projections, despite market setting records under President Biden.