Grain Industry Maintaining Resilience to Complete May's Performance
Wheat Trends: Mixed Performances Across Exchanges Amidst Export Changes
In the bustling world of wheat trading, Friday's midday saw a surge in prices across three major exchanges. Chicago SRW futures exhibited minor gains, while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts registered more substantial increases.
The export sales data for the current marketing year of 2024/25 revealed net reductions of approximately 128,797 metric tons for wheat, a figure consistent with expectations of a 200,000-100,000 MT reduction. The new crop sales recorded 711,368 MT, which from estimates spanning 300,000-800,000 MT, fell on the higher end. This marked a three-week low for exports amidst unknown destinations being the top buyers with 213,000 MT, closely followed by Mexico with 140,000 MT and South Korea with 115,000 MT.
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The French soft wheat crop, as per FranceAgriMer's estimates, stands at 70% good/excellent, a slight dip from the 71% reported a week prior.
Looking at July 2025 CBOT wheat, it concluded the day at $5.34 3/4, inching up 3/4 cent. Similarly, Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat contracts also gained, with increases ranging from 11 to 14 cents.
It is essential to recognize that in the volatile global wheat market, various factors come into play. The latest update on export sales and the French soft wheat crop are but pieces of an intricate puzzle influencing the prices and trade flows internationally. As production and consumption patterns evolve, prices and trade volumes continue to follow suit, with key players like Russia and the European Union expected to remain major influencers for the 2025/26 wheat season.
Global production for the upcoming season is forecasted to reach a record 808.5 million tons, a testament to increased output across several major wheat-producing nations. A noted rise in global trade volumes is also predicted, with shipments set to rebound by 6%, reaching the third-highest level on record, underscoring the dynamic and ever-changing global wheat market.
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