If one might perceive an increase in airplane accidents and mishaps, here's the actual situation.
Monday's harrowing incident isn't an isolated occurrence, considering the chilling collision between an American Airlines plane and a US Army helicopter last month, claiming 67 lives. The uncanny feeling of danger in the skies has been lingering.
However, our feelings may deceive us. A glance at statistics reveals a scenario that is contrastingly different. The skies, surprisingly, seem as welcoming as they've ever been.
Delve into January's preliminary data from the National Transportation Safety Board. It appears the United States witnessed a record low number of airplane accidents involving both private and commercial flights. Last month, the total count stood at 62, representing an 18-drop from the 80 reported in January 2024.
Intriguingly, if these preliminary numbers hold true, January 2025 will surpass the previous record for the lowest number of accidents with a whopping eight fewer than the 70 set in January 2012.
Sadly, 10 of these accidents claimed lives, with one incident involving a commercial airliner. Regardless, this count is surprisingly low, historically speaking.
This safety record isn't a mere fluke. In my previous findings, I've pointed out how commercial air travel in the United States has outshone safety standards. There have been fewer fatalities on scheduled commercial airliners over the past 15 years than any other comparable time period. It seems like the mantra "commercial airliners are safer than cars" is more than just a thesis in the airline industry.
Indeed, this trend persists when considering private and commercial flights together. The data reveals that last year witnessed fewer accidents and even fewer fatalities – 257 – that any year prior to it. This downward trend has been consistently recorded over the past 12 years, displaying fewer accidents each year than previous records dating back to at least 1982.
Interestingly, the 2020s have been the only decade to have recorded fewer than 300 fatal accidents, marking a drastic difference from historical records, where 1982 had over 600 fatal accidents.
Meanwhile, you might be under the impression that commercial airliners are often involved in crashes that make headlines. However, it's crucial to remember that the majority of crashes involve private small planes, which usually don't garner much media attention.
Dive into my colleague Chris Isidore's insights on this matter. He noted that a couple of horrifying incidents don't necessarily paint an accurate picture of an interconnected industry. With approximately 9 million commercial flights operated by US airlines annually, one or two extra accidents in a given year isn't statistically significant.
Sometimes, we overreact to incidents that seem alarming. Two years ago, for instance, there was a panic over near misses.
In 2023, 23 runway incursions were classified as serious incidents, making it the highest count in a decade. However, this trend seemed to subside in 2024, as the number of serious runway incursions dropped to just seven - the lowest recorded in over a decade.
A mere two instances of the most severe type of near miss were reported in 2024 - also the lowest count in a decade. Put simply, the skies are becoming increasingly safe - at least statistically.
This isn't to say that aviation is without risk. The unfortunate crash in Toronto reinforces this reality. However, when we consider the bigger picture, it becomes clear that airplane travel is indisputably safe. The numbers stand testament to this fact.
Even with the recent incidents, the historical trendline points towards improving aviation safety. The data reveals that commercial air travel has been growing progressively safer over the past few decades, with a significant decline in fatalities. Although ochre clouds may loom on the horizon, the trendlines suggest a silver lining.
In light of this improving trend, businesses in the aviation industry might see an increase in travelers' confidence by 2025, potentially leading to a surge in bookings. This projected rise could influence the aircraft manufacturing sector to focus on safety features, further lowering the trendline for accidents. However, it's crucial to continually monitor and analyze accident data to maintain this downward trajectory and prevent any unforeseen accidents.
