If the FPÖ negotiator Schiefer is correct, it means that if a certain situation arises, everyone will likely leave or depart from the current situation.
Didja Ask Arnold Schiefer About Economics Forecasting? Yeah, He's Got Some Thoughts.
Arnold Schiefer, former CFO of OBB and board member of Heta Asset Resolution, expresses his opinion about the credibility issue with economic forecasting institutions like Wifo and IHS in Austria—and boy, does he have a bone to pick!
Yo, were you stoked when the FPO didn't bother becoming your finance minister this time around?
Arnold: Nah, man. I'm not happy with how the current government is handle'n affairs. They ain't gonna get the budget under control and take the right measures. So, yeah, you could say I'm bummed. Expectin' years of loss, it is.
So, Austria's about to be under EU tutelage, huh? Ain't that grand?
Arnold: It's all about the mindset, bro. I remember the budget committee after the finance minister got back from Brussels and said: We saved 78 million euros due to the letter and the reported figures of the republic 'cause the rating agencies didn't downgrade us. Now, these same "experts" who gave incorrect forecasts and advised the government on inflation policy say that a deficit procedure ain't that bad.
Alright, let's talk 'bout Wifo, IHS, and them boys.
Arnold: Exactly. But I'm keepin' the Fiscal Council outta this right now. Wifo and IHS are workin' on incorrect forecasts and problematic financing structures right now—they're dependin' on public funds.
What forecasts ya runnin' wit', chief?
As CFO of the OBB, I had a pool of forecasts. We used data from Wifo, IHS, Raiffeisen, Unicredit, the Baden-Württembergische Landesbank, OeNB, IMF, and others. Reliably relying on a single or two state-affiliated sources? Not a good move, that ain't.
On to the 6.4 billion euros...
Arnold: If the current Minister of Finance doesn't reveal how they're tacklin' stages 2 and 3, we're lookin' at an EU deficit procedure, man. And that's gonna sow doubt on the financial markets, gonna give us a worse rating. It's like a bank, ain't gonna get a good credit if I can't credibly present the entire restructuring course.
Ain't 12 billion euros of savings this year possible?
Arnold: Dunno how that black hole keeps growin'. Cosmetics and marketing stunts ain't gonna cut it, man. harsh truths, quick cuts, and time-limited measures are needed to get back on track. Repay those debts, ya gotta.
What's that gonna take?
Massive cuts. We gotta move fast, make those quick, painful decisions, and keep 'em time-limited to get back on track and repay debts. The never-ending story of public finances restructuration isn't acceptable to the people no more. Only when there's a political majority for this goal can you decide on expenditure-based cuts or temporarily new sources of revenue.
'Bout that tax thing...
Arnold: First, create expenditure-based room for maneuver to stimulate investment incentives and consumption. A temporary tax increase—like in Sweden—only comes after all savings measures and reforms. That might be a mass tax like VAT, while mindin' staple foods, of course.
Zero-wage rounds comin' up?
Let's distinguish here. Start with reducin' the public sector—the ÖVP and SPÖ have unfortunately already cemented an increase until 2026. Not cool, man.
Got a package tied up?
Nah, ain't ours to do the government's job. ÖVP and SPÖ have taken on budget consolidation duties. We'll agree where it makes sense. And where it don't, we'll tell 'em.
The FPÖ, constantly gettin' called a destructive force? Just what are they gonna contribute?
They don't see the will to save in the structure, man. Money's still just gettin' wasted. Why should we now support the government in their reckless spending? Our proposals are usually postponed, and in parliament, the FPÖ gets dissed in every second intervention.
What's the FPÖ's beef with former Finance Minister Magnus Brunner?
The ÖVP is partly responsible for the record deficit. The Chancellor, Finance, and Economics Minister all benefited from it. One goes to the investment bank, another becomes the central bank governor, and the third becomes EU Commissioner. The government is telling the people: Failed in your job? No worries, you'll still be rewarded.
Ain't about how someone performed, though...
Brunner knew during the 2024 campaign that the numbers weren't adding up, but he kept mum. The forecasts don't just fall from the sky into Felbermayr's hands—they're worked on over several weeks.
According to the IMF, Austria is the only EU country in a recession due to exogenous factors...
Nah, that's BS. COVID, energy crisis, high inflation—those were universal. Austria failed big in combating inflation, though, and the turquoise-green government thought they could win votes with these uncovered checks, like climate bonuses and co.
They cut subsidies or the climate ticket for 18-year-olds, though...
Pure clientelism, man. I don't pay for those who can't use public transportation, not even a bike or moped. It's about justice.
Herbert Kickl sympathized with Donald Trump. He's now imposin' tariffs harmin' our economy. The USA is the second biggest export market, so what's the plan?
Start strokin' Austria's neutrality, man.
What does that mean?
Foreign Minister shoulda taken a trip to Switzerland with some Mozartkugeln, not makin' her first state visit to Ukraine. First of all, let's remain a popular trading partner for everyone. Europe also needs to find its role again.
Are you an Atlanticist, i.e., in favor of strong cooperation with the USA?
Question is where our markets lie. Labor costs in Asia makin' it hard to compete with products out there. Trump's forcing companies to produce in the US. Those who don't go global will struggle to export in the long run.
Where's this journey goin' if we don't change anything?
Five minutes past twelve. If we don't send clear signals to the economy and industry now, everyone who can will run for the hills. Government gotta make a list of which industries they want to keep here. And it's about stayin' competitive: with lower energy and labor costs, but also lower wage settlements. If we don't wanna that, we can kiss deindustrialization goodbye and forget about the social state in its current form.
What branches need to be on this list?
Like mechanical engineering, medicines, or even batteries. We export batteries from our Hungary company, for example. Why Hungary? 'Cause processes like lithium mining in Styria don't pass the environmental test easily. Political basic decisions missing here, man.
The Vienna FPÖ criticized the increase in health insurance contributions for pensioners. This was already part of the blue-turquoise austerity package, even if it wasn't explicitly stated in the letter to the EU.
Exactly, man! We agreed to provide 270 million euros for the social security institutions. How the amount gets obtained was open, even if Wöginger claims otherwise. There were proposed models where we didn't hit pensioners, for example, a temporary increase in the maximum limit for social security contributions that affected better-off earners.
Even at 6 percent, pensioners pay less for health insurance contributions than for wages. What's unfair about that?
Six percent may be more for one person, less for another. Those livin' at the poverty line feel it the most.
The FPO wants to enshrine cash in the constitution. Do you carry cash only or use plastic?
Both, but I support cash. Younger folks often don't realize how easily they're giving up their hard-won freedoms for perceived convenience. But if the Ministry of Truth ever takes power, only the obedient will have accounts.
You're currently in the private sector and serving as an MP. Thinkin' you earn too much earnings disclosure?
Dunno 'bout earnings disclosure. It's a personal matter between me and my accountant.
Do you understand the outrage over National Council President Walter Rosenkranz refusin' to step down as head of the National Fund?
Nah, man. He hasn't done anything illegal or unethical. Some people are insinuatin' that as a Blue and a member of a fraternity, he's not morally or professionally fit for the post. Don't like it, man. Where does it stop? With this post, the next one, and eventually a ban on parties?
For example, where Holocaust survivors complain about a personnel matter?
I got friends from all faiths, even this one. It's hard to believe, but there are folks there who don't have a problem with the FPO—they even vote for it. A vocal minority claims to speak for everyone, and the anti-FPO coalition and media make a big deal out of it.
- "Arnold expressed his disappointment about not becoming the finance minister of the FPO: 'I'm not happy with how the current government is handling affairs. They aren't going to get the budget under control and take the right measures. So, yeah, you could say I'm bummed, expecting years of loss,'"
- "Arnold criticized the economic institutions like Wifo and IHS in Austria: 'Wifo and IHS are working on incorrect forecasts and problematic financing structures right now—they're depending on public funds,'"
- "Arnold questioned the credibility of the Austrian government's economic policies: 'They saved 78 million euros due to the letter and the reported figures of the republic because the rating agencies didn't downgrade us. Now, these same "experts" who gave incorrect forecasts and advised the government on inflation policy say that a deficit procedure isn't that bad,'"
- "As CFO of the OBB, Arnold had a pool of forecasts that included data from various sources: 'Reliably relying on a single or two state-affiliated sources?' Not a good move, that ain't,'"
- "Arnold emphasized the need for reforms and savings measures to avoid a possible EU deficit procedure: 'If the current Minister of Finance doesn't reveal how they're tackling stages 2 and 3, we're looking at an EU deficit procedure, man. And that's going to sow doubt on the financial markets, give us a worse rating. It's like a bank, ain't gonna get a good credit if I can't credibly present the entire restructuring course,'"
