Import volumes for retailers anticipated to decrease by 5.6% in the year 2025 due to the toll of tariffs
The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates have predicted a decrease in import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports for the end of 2025. The forecast estimates that the total volume for 2025 will be 24.1 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), a 5.6% decrease compared to 2024's 25.5 million TEUs [1][2][3].
The decline is primarily due to the impacts of rising tariffs and trade policies, which have created uncertainty and led to reduced imports after a surge in the first half of 2025. This decrease is expected to result in fewer goods on store shelves and higher consumer prices, posing significant challenges for small businesses [1][2][3].
July 2025 saw a surge in imports as retailers frontloaded shipments ahead of tariff changes, but projections for the remainder of the year indicate a slowdown, causing the overall annual decline [3][4][5]. The NRF projected that July 2025 surged to 2.3 million TEUs, a 17.3% increase from June and a slight 0.5% decrease year-over-year [1][2][3].
Despite the decrease, the total projected volume for 2025 is still higher than the volumes for 2022 (21.9 million TEUs) and 2023 (23.8 million TEUs) [1][2][3]. Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, stated that the unpredictable approach to tariffs is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters, and consumers [6].
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, emphasised that tariffs are driving up consumer prices and reducing the availability of goods on store shelves [7]. The decrease in import cargo volume is attributed to the impact of tariffs and the administration's trade policy on the supply chain [8].
In June 2025, U.S. ports processed 1.96 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), an 8.4% decrease year-over-year [9]. The projected volume for the remainder of 2025 would bring the total for the year to 24.1 million TEUs [3][4][5].
The anticipated decrease in overall import volumes from September to December 2025 is primarily due to cargo being pulled forward earlier in the year because of tariffs [10][11]. The projected volume for September 2025 is 1.83 million TEUs, a 19.5% decrease year-over-year compared to the same month in 2024 [1][2][3].
Similarly, October 2025 is projected to be 18.9% off at 1.82 million TEUs, and 21.1% lower in November at 1.71 million TEUs [1][2][3]. The projected volume for August 2025 is 2.2 million TEUs, a 5% decrease from July 2025's forecasted 2.3 million TEUs [1][2][3].
The NRF represents Walmart, Target, and other major retailers [12]. These forecasts highlight the ongoing challenges and uncertainties in the U.S. trade landscape, with potential implications for businesses and consumers alike.
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] - References to the bullet points provided.
The decline in import cargo volume for major U.S. container ports by the end of 2025 is not only affecting the retail industry but also creates financial challenges for small businesses due to fewer goods on store shelves and higher consumer prices. This situation is particularly influenced by the impacts of rising tariffs and trade policies on the supply chain of various businesses.
The forecasted decrease in import cargo volume brings a significant challenge for various sectors of the business community, including retailers and small businesses, as well as for the supply chain and finance industries, due to the uncertainties brought about by the tariffs' unpredictable approach and their effects on consumer prices.
