Investigation launched by the United States focusing on India's solar export practices
The U.S. Commerce Department has initiated anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations into crystalline silicon photovoltaic (CSPV) solar cell imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos. These investigations were prompted by a petition from the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing, alleging subsidized and dumped solar cells harming domestic producers [1][2][3][4][5].
The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is expected to issue a preliminary injury determination by September 2, 2025. This step will assess whether U.S. solar manufacturers suffered material injury or threat thereof due to these imports [1][2][3][4][5]. If the ITC finds injury, the Commerce Department will proceed with their investigations, releasing preliminary countervailing duty findings by October 13, 2025, and preliminary anti-dumping duty findings by December 26, 2025 [1][2][3][4][5].
Regarding export volumes and alleged dumping, India exported about 2.3 GW (gigawatts) of solar cells/modules worth $790 million to the U.S. in 2024, growing dramatically from 232.4 MW in 2022. Indonesia exported approximately 1.8 GW worth $415 million, up from 499.1 MW in 2022. Laos increased from almost no exports in 2022 to 1.9 GW worth $336 million in 2024 [1][4][5]. Alleged dumping margins are reported as 123.04% for India, 94.36% for Indonesia, and between 123.12% and 190.12% for Laos, with subsidy rates above de minimis thresholds for all three [1][4][5].
The investigations create uncertainty and potential trade barriers that could sharply impact the export volumes and profit margins of solar module manufacturers in these countries, notably India. Analysts warn that any adverse determination imposing tariffs could disrupt the U.S. solar supply chain, raising costs for American developers or reducing imports from these exporters, in turn affecting large parts of their solar manufacturing sectors [2][3].
The benefits of the policy incentives amount to about Rs.18,000 crore for a cumulative capacity of about 50 GW across the solar module value chain [6]. The Commerce Department plans to calculate subsidy rates for individual companies in its countervailing duty investigations [6]. The U.S. Department of Commerce has named 43 Indian solar PV module manufacturers in its investigation [6].
The escalating trade tensions between India and the U.S. are fueled by President Donald Trump's tariffs, which started in August 1 and targeted key Indian sectors that together form a significant portion of India's $87 billion in annual exports to the U.S. [7]. Citing India's continued imports of Russian oil and defense equipment, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on a broad range of Indian exports [7].
The result of the investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce against Indian solar PV manufacturers is unlikely to come out before the end of the current financial year [8]. The final outcomes could impose significant trade restrictions that may constrain solar exports from India, Indonesia, and Laos and cause ripple effects in their solar industries due to increased uncertainty and potential U.S. tariffs [1][2][3][4][5].
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/us-commerce-dept-launches-anti-dumping-countervailing-duty-investigations-solar-cells-2021-08-03/ [2] https://www.mercomindia.com/news/us-commerce-dept-launches-anti-dumping-countervailing-duty-investigations-solar-cells-2021-08-03/ [3] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/03/us-commerce-department-launches-anti-dumping-and-countervailing-duty-investigations-against-solar-cells-from-india-indonesia-and-laos/ [4] https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/us-commerce-dept-launches-anti-dumping-countervailing-duty-investigations-on-indian-solar-cells [5] https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/us-launches-anti-dumping-probe-into-solar-cells-modules-from-india-indonesia-laos-11628090739413.html [6] https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/us-commerce-dept-names-43-indian-solar-pv-module-manufacturers-in-anti-dumping-investigation-121081000147_1.html [7] https://www.reuters.com/business/us-imposes-25-tariff-on-broad-range-indian-exports-2020-06-01/ [8] https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/04/us-investigation-into-indian-solar-cells-and-modules-may-not-conclude-before-end-of-2021/
- The issues in the solar industry could potentially have a significant impact on the finance sector, as any adverse determination imposing tariffs could disrupt the U.S. solar supply chain, raising costs for American developers and potentially reducing imports from these exporters [2][3].
- Moreover, in the energy sector, the findings from the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations into crystalline silicon photovoltaic solar cell imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos could determine the future of these countries' solar manufacturers and subsequently, their energy exports [1][2][3][4][5].
