Investigators are scouring the recovered black box data from Air India flight 171 to uncover critical insights into the plane's final moments.
In the aftermath of the tragic crash of Air India Flight AI171, aviation experts are shedding light on the intricate, multilayered investigation that now unfolds.
The Indian Civil Aviation Minister, Ram Mohan Naidu Kinjarapu, confirmed the recovery of the plane's black boxes, stating it was a significant leap forward for the inquiry. The government swiftly formed a high-level committee with the aim of preventing such occurrences in the future.
Though a complete explanation could take several months, early clues and professional insights are zeroing in on critical investigation areas.
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Unveiling the Final Moments
Aviation analysts, Linus Benjamin Bauer of Bauer Aviation Advisory and Saj Ahmad, Chief Analyst at StrategicAero Research, have underscored the importance of the two vital black boxes: the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and the Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR).
The FDR tirelessly logs hundreds of critical parameters every second, ranging from speed, altitude, and engine thrust to flap positions. The CVR records cockpit conversations for the past two hours.
Together, these pieces of evidence help generate an accurate and unbiased timeline of the final moments of the aircraft, according to Bauer.
In addition, the sole survivor's testimony will be crucial in understanding the crash of the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner.
Crucial Inquiry Lines to Pursue
At the core of the investigation, experts anticipate several major lines of inquiry.
"Investigations into widebody aircraft crashes, like the Boeing 787, are complex, multijurisdictional, and incredibly technical. The initial 48 to 72 hours focus heavily on securing evidence, stabilizing the site, and kickstarting collaboration among stakeholders," Bauer illuminates.
These concentrate on:
Human Factors: Investigators will probe deeply into pilot qualifications, potential fatigue, training records, cockpit resource management strategies, and pilot behavior under extreme stress. Given the pilots’ extensive experience, their actions under such pressure become a primary focal point.
Technical Inspections: Scrutiny will fall on Air India's maintenance and maintenance records for this aircraft and its total fleet. Investigators will check whether the aircraft was airworthy, unresolved discrepancies, and the robustness of the quality control.
Boeing's role in aircraft manufacturing, as well as GE Aerospace, the engine manufacturer, will also come under the microscope, especially considering recent thrust issues.
"Investigators will want to shed light on questions such as: Was the aircraft airworthy? Were any recent discrepancies still unresolved? Was the quality control in line maintenance robust enough?" said Bauer.
System Malfunctions or Isolated Events: Investigators will evaluate whether the crash was caused by a fundamental design flaw in the Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Both experts believe this is unlikely, owing to the Dreamliner's extensive service history and commendable safety record.
Instead, they anticipate this incident could be an isolated event, potentially augmented by issues such as engine trouble or flight computer malfunctions. Questions that arise include whether the wing flaps and slats were extended properly and why the landing gear stayed lowered.
External Factors and Environment: Air Traffic Control (ATC) logs, radar data, and communication records will be analyzed for any potential miscommunications, anomalies, or indication of external factors influencing the crash. Environmental factors like stress, workload, visibility, and weather conditions will also be contemplated during takeoff or approach, as per Bauer.
"Initial speculations about bird strikes don't seem to be supported by available footage, requiring a large flock of large birds to bring down a jet as massive as the 787-8 Dreamliner," Ahmad shared. "If weather was marginal during takeoff or approach, investigators will examine the crew’s ability to manage situational awareness and decision-making under such conditions."
Investigation Timeline and Process
India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) is spearheading the technical investigation. Following international protocols (ICAO Annex 13), Boeing and the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) will be invited, ensuring top-notch technical support and data decoding expertise. Other agencies, such as the FAA (USA) and potentially EASA for European components, may also observe.
The black boxes will be sent to a certified laboratory for decoding, which can take weeks. A preliminary report is expected within one month, though its scope will be limited.
The final, all-inclusive report, comprising technical analysis, interviews, and simulations, might take 12 to 18 months to complete. This final report will be instrumental for suggesting modifications in procedures, training, aircraft design, or regulations and for assessing liability.
Dreamliner's Safety Record
Ahmad noted that despite this unfortunate event, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner family remains amongst the safest and most stringently tested aircraft. With nearly 1,000 in service around the globe, they have safely transported over a billion passengers. This disaster marks the maiden "hull loss" since the model's inception in 2011, demonstrating the strong safety record of the Dreamliner.
As Bauer puts it, "Events in the weeks ahead are not just about understanding one aircraft's final flight; it's about validating the global system's capacity to learn, adapt, and safeguard passengers."
"Investigators' responsibility is to discern what went wrong and ensure it never occurs again," Bauer adds, noting the importance of this moment for Air India, Boeing, and the wider industry to embrace transparency, rigor, and systemic safety beyond mere recovery.
- The black boxes, including the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR), are vital in generating an accurate timeline of the final moments of the aircraft, according to Linus Benjamin Bauer.
- Expert analysts anticipate several major lines of inquiry, such as investigating human factors, technical inspections, system malfunctions or isolated events, and external factors and environment.
- Human factors investigations will focus on pilot qualifications, training records, cockpit resource management strategies, and pilot behavior under extreme stress.
- Technical inspections will involve scrutiny of Air India's maintenance and maintenance records, checking whether the aircraft was airworthy, unresolved discrepancies, and the robustness of the quality control.
- Boeing's role in aircraft manufacturing and GE Aerospace, the engine manufacturer, will also be under investigation, given recent engine issues.
- Investigators will evaluate whether the crash was caused by a fundamental design flaw in the Boeing 787 Dreamliner or if it was an isolated event, potentially augmented by issues such as engine trouble or flight computer malfunctions.
- Air Traffic Control (ATC) logs, radar data, and communication records will be analyzed for potential miscommunications, anomalies, or external factors influencing the crash.
- The Dreamliner's safety record, despite this unfortunate event, remains among the safest and most stringently tested aircraft, with nearly 1,000 in service around the globe, having safely transported over a billion passengers.
