Kazakhstan planning a public vote on the construction of a nuclear power plant.

A Nuclear Breakthrough for Kazakhstan: Choose Wisely

Kazakhstan is at a crucial juncture in its power sector, with a pressing need to diversify and cut down on CO2 emissions. The nation is weighing nuclear power as a potential solution to these challenges, and officials have set the stage for this shift by announcing a referendum on the issue.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced the referendum in late June, though a specific date has yet to be chosen. With abundant oil and gas reserves, the President emphasized the need for alternative energy sources to fuel economic growth. He assured the public that the government is dedicated to developing its nuclear energy potential responsibly.

"Our nation boasts tremendous opportunities for nuclear energy development; it's crucial we utilize them smartly," Tokayev was quoted as saying in a speech to the press.

The immediate question on many minds is who will assist Kazakhstan in building a reactor? Four entities from Russia, France, China, and South Korea are vying for the project. A decision will be made post-referendum, assuming the issue receives popular support. With Kazakhstan's closely controlled political environment, a "yes" vote seems imminent.

Concerns revolve around geopolitics potentially compelling Kazakh authorities to award the construction contract to Rosatom, the Russian state-controlled firm. Some speculate it may already be a foregone conclusion, merely waiting for the perfect moment to announce. This speculation stirs unease over safety and sovereignty concerns.

Economist Aset Nauryzbaev, a former top official at KEGOC, the company that manages Kazakhstan's electricity grid, fears a Russian-built reactor would undermine Kazakhstan's long-practiced foreign policy of multi-vectorism. "By developing its own nuclear power plant here, Russia would exercise control over Kazakhstan – we would rely on their production technologies, fuel, specialists, and they would undoubtedly leverage this power when needed," Nauryzbaev told Eurasianet.

Vadim Nee, director of the Social and Environmental Fund, an environmental non-profit, shares this concern about the prospect of deepening Astana's nuclear partnership with Moscow. "While pursuing green energy, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea are simultaneously working to limit Russia's role in the nuclear industry. We risk getting caught in the middle," Nee told Eurasianet.

Timur Zhantikin, general director of the Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plant company, claims that the uranium needed to fuel a nuclear plant would be domestically sourced, thereby limiting Russia's ability to exert pressure on Kazakhstan once the reactor starts operations.

Social media chatter among Kazakhstan's commentariat is firmly opposed to Rosatom's involvement in any nuclear power plant project. The lingering impact of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster and the close calls at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant during the Russia-Ukraine war have left many with the impression that Russia is lackadaisical when it comes to nuclear safety. Kazakhstan possesses its own complicated nuclear "history," dating back to the legacy of Semipalatinsk, one of the Soviet Union's primary nuclear test sites.

Presently, around 80 percent of electricity in Kazakhstan is produced by burning coal, with 15 percent coming from hydropower, while the remaining percentage derives from renewable energy sources. Soviet-era energy infrastructure is prone to frequent breakdowns that cause lengthy power outages across the country. Adding nuclear power to the current mix is seen by officials as a swift remedy to existing problems.

However, nuclear energy should not be perceived as a "green" energy source devoid of risks. "We must not disregard that nuclear power plants produce harmful waste," Nee stated. "And if an accident occurs, we risk losing one of our strategic water bodies – Lake Balkhash."

Since the end of last year, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy has been promoting nuclear energy in an attempt to sway public opinion in favor of the technology. A poll conducted by Demoscope, an independent research firm, found that 47 percent of those polled supported the construction of a nuclear plant, while 38 percent were against.

Skeptics believe the referendum's outcome is already decided but authorities want to hold it to provide political cover in case of a future mishap. "Strategic issues are typically determined from above, and a popular vote allows the authorities to shift responsibility onto the people," stated Olzhas Beksultanov, an activist with the political reform movement Oyan, Qazakstan.

Potential Partners for Kazakhstan's Nuclear Power Plant

China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC): Renowned for its advanced Gen-IV reactors and global export success, CNNC offers appealing financial and technological terms, aligning with Kazakhstan's strategic diversification goals and its participation in the Belt and Road Initiative.
Rosatom (Russia): Despite a longstanding partnership with Russia, choosing Rosatom might expose Kazakhstan to risks associated with Western sanctions against Russia, potentially discouraging international investment.
Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP): Offering the APR-1400 reactor, KHNP presents a reputable alternative, but it lacks the strategic geopolitical alignment that China offers.
EDF (France): Proposing the EPR1200 reactor, EDF is known for its safety standards, but it tends to be more expensive and may not align as well with Kazakhstan's cost and strategic priorities.

Geopolitical Implications

Each choice carries significant geopolitical implications:

China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)

Strategic Diversification: This option aligns with Kazakhstan's goal to reduce dependence on Russia and strengthen ties with China, thereby enhancing regional energy security and sovereignty.
Belt and Road Initiative: Participating in this initiative could secure long-term economic integration and favorable technology transfer conditions.
Risk Considerations: Although China offers competitive terms, its nuclear technologies have faced scrutiny over safety standards.

Rosatom (Russia)

Sanctions Risks: Engaging with Rosatom might expose Kazakhstan to indirect sanctions and risks associated with Russia's geopolitical situation, potentially impacting international investment.
Historical Ties: Having been a significant partner for Kazakhstan, recent geopolitical tensions have prompted Astana to reassess its relationships.

Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) and EDF (France)

Technological Advantages: Both offer advanced reactor technologies known for safety and efficiency, but these options might be less aligned with Kazakhstan's strategic diversification goals or more costly.
Less Geopolitical Alignment: While providing a neutral alternative, they do not offer the same level of strategic partnership as China, potentially limiting long-term benefits in terms of economic integration and geopolitical positioning.

Economist Aset Nauryzbaev voiced concerns about Russia exerting control over Kazakhstan through a Russian-built nuclear reactor, potentially undermining Kazakhstan's foreign policy of multi-vectorism.
Timur Zhantikin, general director of the Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plant company, stated that the uranium needed to fuel a nuclear plant would be domestically sourced, limiting Russia's ability to exert pressure on Kazakhstan once the reactor starts operations.
Skeptics believe the referendum's outcome is already determined but authorities want to hold it to provide political cover in case of a future mishap, as strategic issues are typically determined from above.
With the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster and the close calls at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant during the Russia-Ukraine war, many Kazakhstan's are opposed to Rosatom's involvement in any nuclear power plant project, fearing poor safety standards.
Kazakhstan is considering potential partners for its nuclear power plant project, with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) offering advanced Gen-IV reactors and appealing financial and technological terms.
Engaging with Rosatom might expose Kazakhstan to indirect sanctions and risks associated with Russia's geopolitical situation, potentially impacting international investment, as each choice carries significant geopolitical implications.