Lufthansa: A Rollercoaster Ride Ahead?
Lufthansa faces a 18% likelihood of...
The Lufthansa share has seen its fair share of ups and downs since the beginning of 2025. Despite the initial optimism, a series of challenges have pushed the share price down. However, the rides not over yet. Investors can still aim for high yields with bonus certificates if the share price takes a dive.
Lufthansa's share, which hit an all-time high of 8.16 euros on March 6, 2025, slipped to 5.70 euros in April. While the share has recovered to 6.33 euros, the progress has been relatively slow compared to other stocks.
Recently, UBS experts have reaffirmed their buy recommendation for Lufthansa, lowering their price target from 9 to 8.85 euros. This recommendation suggests that experts anticipate further recovery.
The Investment Idea
Investors who believe that the Lufthansa share will not or only briefly fall below its long-term lows of below 5 euros in the next few months could consider purchasing a bonus certificate with a cap. This certificate offers high yield opportunities, not just when the share price rises, but also when it moves sideways or falls.
The downside? You'll have to forgo the unlimited profit potential of the equity investment and dividend payments to enjoy these attractive sideways opportunities.
How It Works
If the Lufthansa share never touches or falls below the barrier at 4.50 euros by the certificate's valuation date, the bonus certificate with a cap will be redeemed at its bonus amount of 8.50 euros on June 25, 2026.
Key Details
The BNP Paribas bonus certificate with a cap on the Lufthansa share (ISIN: DE000PG6H9X9) has a bonus level and cap of 8.50 euros. The cap defines the maximum payout amount of the certificate. The barrier activated until the valuation date, June 19, 2026, is at 4.50 euros. At the current Lufthansa share price of 6.33 euros, you could purchase the certificate at 7.18 euros.
Chances and Risks
Since investors can currently purchase the certificate at 7.18 euros, it offers the potential for a gross return of 18.38 percent (equivalent to 17 percent per year) by June 2026, provided the share price does not fall by 28.91 percent to 4.50 euros or below by the valuation date.
However, if the Lufthansa share touches the barrier at 4.50 euros by the valuation date and the share is trading below the cap on the valuation date, the certificate will be redeemed at the fixed closing price of the Lufthansa share on the valuation date. If this is below 7.18 euros, you'll incur a loss.
Disclaimer: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell Lufthansa shares or investment products based on Lufthansa shares. No liability is assumed for the accuracy of the data.
Sources: ntv.de, Walter Kozubek, Zertifikate-Report, Stifel Financial Corp., UBS
Investment, Stock Tips, Stock Analysis, Lufthansa, Wealth, Securities
Market Outlook for Lufthansa Shares: A Cautiously Optimistic Perspective
With improved earnings outlook, strong travel demand, and cost-cutting measures, Lufthansa shares show a medium-term optimistic outlook. However, geopolitical tensions and near-term technical signals cast some uncertainty on the near-term price performance, with the share price hovering around €6.28 and a potential near-term decline of up to 10%.
Bonus certificates with a cap on Lufthansa shares can offer a structured way to capture some upside potential while limiting losses. However, the uncertainty remains, and returns are not guaranteed due to ongoing risks. Investors should weigh fundamentals against the risks when considering Lufthansa shares or bonus certificates tied to them.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ, Société Générale, JP Morgan, Bernstein
- Despite the initial optimism, Lufthansa's employment policy may face challenges that could affect the share price, as seen in the rollercoaster ride since 2025.
- The community policy within Lufthansa could impact its future, especially when it comes to bonus certificates and cap-based employment policies, which offer high yield opportunities.
- In 2026, investors might consider the risk-reward ratio when deciding on investing in Lufthansa shares or bonus certificates tied to them, given the potential for high yields and losses due to ongoing risks.
- The market outlook for Lufthansa shares suggests a medium-term optimistic view, given improved earnings, strong travel demand, and cost-cutting measures. However, geopolitical tensions and near-term technical signals might cast uncertainty on the near-term price performance.
