Oil prices could potentially climb towards the $60 range, according to experts, as a result of improved relations between Israel and Iran.
In the coming weeks, the oil market is anticipating a period of relative stability, with prices predicted to hover around the current levels of $65 to $68 per barrel for WTI and Brent crude. This forecast follows the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for July 6, 2025.
The anticipated near-term range for oil prices is largely contingent on the decisions made at the OPEC+ meeting. The group is expected to approve a fourth consecutive monthly production increase of about 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August 2025, continuing their gradual unwinding of previous voluntary cuts. This would bring total 2025 supply increases to around 1.78 million bpd, about 1.5% of global demand.
However, the group's "gradualist" approach aims to avoid shocking markets, aligning supply increases with real-time demand data. There is a risk of oversupply in the second half of 2025 if global demand growth lags behind the rising supply, which could weigh further on prices.
Other key factors affecting oil prices in the near term include global economic conditions, geopolitical risks, market expectations, and compliance with production quotas. The outcome of the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations (due around July 9) and tariff developments will influence demand prospects and market sentiment. A positive resolution could support demand, while uncertainties might suppress it.
Recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has already led oil prices to shed some risk premium, contributing to more stable prices currently. Any flare-up, however, could reintroduce volatility. Market expectations and compliance with production quotas can also affect effective supply and thus prices.
Analysts such as Yesar Al-Maleki, a Gulf analyst at MEES, and Parmar predict prices to stabilize around current levels until OPEC+ provides clearer guidance. Oil prices slumped more than 12% last week, tumbling 8.5% in a single session to $69.48 on June 23, but have since recovered somewhat. The Brent oil price reached $77.81 on June 23, demonstrating the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics.
In summary, barring unexpected geopolitical disruptions or economic shocks, oil prices are expected to remain stable to slightly pressured near the mid-$60s per barrel range after the July 6 meeting, reflecting the balance between steady supply increases and moderate demand growth risks.
The decisions made at the OPEC+ meeting on July 6, 2025, are crucial in determining the oil prices, as the group's proposed production increase might lead to a potential oversupply in the second half of 2025 if global demand growth lags behind. Other factors, including international economic conditions, geopolitical risks, and market expectations, will also influence the energy sector's finance and overall industry trends.
