Paving the Way for Post-Pandemic Recovery in Job Markets
In a collaborative effort between Economist Impact and our group, employment forecasts for 2023 and beyond have been developed to provide organizations with valuable insights for charting a forward path. These forecasts offer a new perspective on the global and regional labor market outlook, highlighting both opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
The forecasts reveal a cautious balance, with job creation through technological and green economy transitions countered by job disruptions from automation and economic instability exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts. Regions vary, with OECD countries showing resilience but facing demographic challenges, while other parts of the world are more vulnerable to the current economic shocks.
Globally, the 2023 Future of Jobs Report analyzed 673 million jobs and forecasts that while 69 million new jobs will be created over the next five years, about 83 million jobs are at risk due to automation and economic pressures. This equates to about one quarter of current jobs facing disruption, underscoring the need for upskilling and adaptation to emerging technologies worldwide.
In OECD countries, employment markets remain generally resilient with employment reaching 668 million in May 2025 and expected to grow by around 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. However, growth is slowing due to geopolitical and trade uncertainties, including those arising from the Russia-Ukraine war, which has impacted global supply chains and inflation.
Inflation and high food prices, compounded by the conflict in Ukraine, add economic pressures that reduce hiring and slow employment growth, particularly in vulnerable regions. For example, in the United States, recent data from mid-2025 shows stagnant or slowed job growth, partly due to uncertainty from tariffs, inflation, and shifting economic policies, leading employers to delay hiring.
Population ageing is a critical factor globally and especially in OECD countries, expected to cause significant labor shortages and fiscal pressures, potentially slowing GDP per capita growth unless offset by policies promoting labor participation among older workers and underrepresented groups.
Tourism, a sector heavily affected by inflation and geopolitical tensions, remains a significant source of jobs globally, accounting for 5.6% of employment between 2015 and 2023, although its recovery trajectory is fragile.
The forecasts emphasize the importance of planning for various potential future scenarios, particularly in times of uncertainty. Scenario planning is considered essential in this context, as it allows organizations to proactively address talent scarcity and prepare for a range of economic outcomes.
It is worth noting that global employment has returned to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. However, if the pandemic did not occur, global employment in 2021 would have been 2.83 billion, indicating a 0.7% deficit due to the pandemic's impact. The forecast indicates global employment will fully recover to a pre-Covid trend in 2023.
In conclusion, the employment forecasts for 2023 and near term are marked by a complex interplay of factors. While job creation through technological and green economy transitions offers opportunities, job disruptions from automation and economic instability exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts present significant risks. Organizations are encouraged to use these forecasts as a guide for navigating this challenging landscape and planning for a sustainable and resilient future.
Financial institutions and businesses should carefully consider the potential job disruptions caused by automation and the economic pressures in their strategic plans, given that about one quarter of current jobs face disruption according to the 2023 Future of Jobs Report. Moreover, organizations in OECD countries need to address the demographic challenges and labor shortages due to population ageing, as it could cause significant fiscal pressures and labor shortages.
