Positioning Rickey Henderson, the Prolific Batter, within Appropriate Historical Perspective
Positioning Rickey Henderson, the Prolific Batter, within Appropriate Historical Perspective
Baseball sadly bid farewell to another legendary figure this weekend as Rickey Henderson, the standout leadoff man and base-stealer, departed at the age of 65. Regrettably, it seems he left us far too soon. The sight of exceptional speed and athleticism icons like Henderson, Joe Morgan, and Lou Brock disappearing at relatively young ages is disconcerting.
Baseball has seen numerous transformations throughout its history, creating records that will likely remain unbroken. No one will ever surpass Nolan Ryan's 5714 strikeouts or Cy Young's 511 victories. As for base-stealing, it's safe to say that Rickey Henderson's record of 1406 stolen bases will never be beaten. Current record holder, Starling Marte, has a humble 354 stolen bases under his belt.
However, Rickey Henderson was more than just a prolific base-stealer. Even if his speed and base-stealing abilities were average, he would still have been an exceptional offensive player, likely deserving of a Hall of Fame spot.
I occasionally reference a method I use to evaluate excellence spanning from a single season to an entire career. This approach involves calculating the number of combined standard deviations above league average in both on-base and slugging percentages. Utilizing replacement level as a baseline for measuring pure player value is appropriate, yet leveraging league average as a benchmark for evaluating excellence, whether for individual season awards or Hall of Fame consideration, is more fitting.
This method does have its limitations, as it fails to account for factors like home park, position, and speed. Its purpose is solely to compile a list of the best hitters based on their actual performance relative to the league.
Ponder for a moment what might have become of Henderson without his exceptional speed or base-stealing prowess. Would he still rank among the top hitters of all time? Keep in mind that his ability to hit into the infield was average-to-poor, yet he still impacted the ball substantially. The only other leadoff hitters in the league who matched his longevity were Pete Rose and Ichiro Suzuki, yet Henderson exhibited more power than both. Morgan showed promise but didn't have the same opportunity at the leadoff spot. Where would Rickey have placed among the towering figures at the top of the all-time Best Hitter list?
Returning to the records, since 1901, Henderson holds the 39th position with 40.45 combined standard deviations above league average. This places him behind Jeff Bagwell (41.55) and ahead of Willie McCovey (40.24). Both played primarily at first base and did not possess comparable power. Bagwell contributed speed and baserunning value, while McCovey did not. However, these enhancements pale in comparison to Henderson's complementary value.
Diving deeper, Henderson's excellence as a batter becomes even more apparent.
Remarkable Durability
Henderson managed to maintain his status as an MLB regular in 23 separate seasons, a feat matched only by Carl Yastrzemski. Among the Top 100 hitters on this list, only 83 players qualified as regulars 23 times. Only Rose (44) and Yastrzemski (43) continued their productive careers into their later years as well. Rickey's performance at age 42 in his last qualifying campaign was nothing short of impressive, with 25 stolen bases and a .366 on-base percentage.
Noteworthy Power Production
Achieving 297 home runs in a career is noteworthy, no matter the length of the career. Just 164 players have surpassed this milestone in history. Notable Hall of Famers like Rogers Hornsby (301) and Chuck Klein (300) were among those with slightly more homers, while veterans like Robin Ventura (294) and Craig Biggio (291) fell just short.
Over his career, Henderson's power production was slightly above league average, with a cumulative standard deviation of 1.36 above average. Among the Top 100 hitters, this was the lowest mark. Only Rose (1.41) had a more modest power production.
In fact, the majority of the top 100 hitters had career power marks exceeding 10.00 standard deviations above average, with only a few exceptions. Players like Tim Raines (4.38), Wade Boggs (5.01), John Olerud (5.37), Ken Singleton (6.39), Bobby Abreu (6.43), Morgan (6.63), Rod Carew (7.10), Keith Hernandez (7.97), Brian Giles (8.34), Arky Vaughan (9.70), and Tony Gwynn (9.70) did not.
If Henderson's power output was slightly above the norm, and he was ranked as the 39th best offensive player of modern times, considering only OBP and SLG, then he must have been extraordinary at reaching base. He amassed an impressive 39.09 career standard deviations more than the league average in OBP. Out of the 38 players ahead of him, only four had higher scores, and they are the top four on the overall list. They are well-known figures such as Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, and Ty Cobb. Ruth, with 43.07 career standard deviations above the league average in OBP, is the one closest to Henderson in this category. That's some elite company indeed.
Before you even consider Henderson's speed, you're dealing with a top 40 hitter of all time. When you add in his special attributes, you've got a player who ranks 18th in the modern era by WAR, with a score of 111.1, placing him between the Hall of Fame legends Lou Gehrig and Mel Ott. It's uncommon to find a player surpassing Henderson in overall ability on my Top 100 hitter list until you reach Willie Mays at the 12th spot. Discussions about true contenders don't even start until you get to Mike Schmidt at the 22nd spot and Alex Rodriguez at the 20th. They are indeed part of the inner circle.
Naturally, when considering Henderson among the all-time greats, the conversation begins with his striking speed ability, which solidifies his place in baseball history. However, do not overlook the fact that he was - and would have been, even without his speed - an exceptional offensive player in any era. Among the Roses, Gwynns, Carews, and Morgans, there was a player who outshone the rest even further - the immortal Rickey Henderson.
In the annals of baseball history, Rickey Henderson's impact went beyond his renowned base-stealing skills. Even with average-to-poor hitting abilities into the infield, Hall of Famer Rod Carew and leadoff hitter Pete Rose had less power than Henderson. Joe Morgan, despite showing promise, did not get the same leadoff opportunities as Henderson.
Despite being known primarily for his base-stealing prowess, Henderson's 297 career home runs placed him in an elite group, surpassing players like Chuck Klein and Rogers Hornsby. With a career power output slightly above league average, Henderson ranked 39th among the top 100 hitters in combined standard deviations above league average.