Potential Nov. day surge seen boosting LVMH shares by 40%
In a significant turn of events, the luxury conglomerate LVMH is gearing up for China's Singles Day, the world's largest 24-hour shopping event, amidst a challenging landscape for the luxury sector.
A Booming Gray Market on Dewu
The CEO and majority shareholder of the publisher Börsenmedien AG, Mr. Bernd Förtsch, has entered into positions in the LVMH financial instruments, coinciding with the report of a booming gray market for luxury items on the app Dewu in China, accounting for around 70 percent of its revenue. This development, coupled with China's tightening belt, has put pressure on the luxury industry, including LVMH.
LVMH's Stock Tumble
LVMH's stock has taken a hit, dropping by nearly 30 percent since its March peak of 885 euros. The once voracious consumer nation of China is now grappling with economic struggles, affecting not just LVMH but also its competitors such as Hermès, Kering, and L'Oréal, whose stocks have also seen a decline upon the release of LVMH's results, albeit not as sharply.
The Impact of Singles Day
Despite these challenges, Singles Day presents a significant opportunity for LVMH given its crucial market position in China. The event, increasingly driven by digital and mobile commerce innovations, attracts mainly younger consumers in China and across Asia-Pacific. LVMH has seen signs of a tangible improvement in its China business in 2025, driven partly by initiatives such as unique brand experiences and partial recovery in tourism demand.
Potential Challenges
However, LVMH shares have already declined nearly 27 percent in 2025 amid concerns over a prolonged luxury market downturn, impacted by lingering effects of U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs, which weigh on consumer confidence and pricing power. LVMH’s Fashion and Leather division, home to Louis Vuitton and Dior, has experienced multiple consecutive quarters of declining sales, with a forecasted 6 percent year-on-year drop recently, indicating that demand recovery remains fragile even with improvements in China.
The Future of LVMH Stock
While Singles Day could provide a boost to LVMH’s sales and brand engagement in China, potentially supporting a partial turnaround in its luxury business there, investors may see only a moderate or gradual positive impact on LVMH stock due to broader macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds affecting global luxury demand. The event’s full impact would depend on LVMH’s execution of targeted campaigns, price strategy, and broader geopolitical developments.
In summary, Singles Day enhances LVMH’s growth prospects in China, a critical market, but recent declines in stock and earnings signal that these gains face significant offsets from external factors. Bernard Arnault, majority shareholder of LVMH, has slipped to fifth place on the list of the world's 500 richest people, reflecting the current challenges faced by the luxury giant.
The further development of the LVMH stock on the stock exchange will depend crucially on how the market in China develops. With the Chinese economy growing at its slowest pace in a year and the government implementing measures to stimulate various sectors, the future of LVMH remains uncertain but promising.
[1] [2] [3] [4] (Sources)
- Mr. Bernd Förtsch's investment in LVMH financial instruments, coupled with the booming gray market for luxury items on Dewu and China's economic struggles, suggests a potential interest in financing and investing in the business sector, particularly in the luxury industry.
- Despite the challenges faced by the luxury sector, LVMH's performance during China's Singles Day could significantly impact its business, indicating the necessity for careful strategic planning and investment in digital and mobile commerce innovations.
