Potential Syrian return may exacerbate skilled labor deficits
After the shift in power in Syria, the possibility of Syrian refugees returning home becomes a topic of concern. The Institute for the German Economy (IW) raises this issue in a report, highlighting potential challenges for certain industries.
A potential return of Syrian refugees could strain the German economy, particularly in terms of skilled labor shortage, according to IW's analysis. The study reveals that approximately 80,000 Syrians are in professions with labor shortages in Germany.
Many Syrians are employed in occupations severely affected by the lack of skilled workers. For instance, approximately 4,000 Syrians work in vehicle mechatronics, an area where six out of ten open positions remain empty due to the scarcity of qualified personnel, according to IW.
Syrians are also heavily represented in other shortage occupations. The study shows around 2,470 Syrian dentists, 2,260 working in childcare and education, and 2,160 in health and nursing care. Moreover, Syrians are crucial in climate-related jobs in building electronics (2,100) and sanitary, heating, and air conditioning technology (1,570). "Syrian employees play a significant role in alleviating the skilled labor shortage in Germany," stated Fabian Semsarha, an economist and author of the study from IW.
A considerable number of Syrians are also employed in other professions in Germany. Around 5,300 are doctors, and their return could further aggravate the shortage of skilled workers, leading to supply bottlenecks, the report suggests. Semsarha, the expert, believes that the contribution of Syrian skilled workers is often overlooked in discussions regarding a possible return. "In many professions, it would be challenging to replace these workers should they leave the country," he added.
The Federal Employment Agency reported an average of around 213,500 people of Syrian origin were socially secured in Germany between June 2023 and May 2024. Of these, 86,000 worked in helper jobs, 127,000 in skilled worker jobs, and 155,000 are unemployed and immediately available in the labor market, according to IW.
The return of Syrian refugees could positively impact certain industries in Germany that are currently experiencing skill shortages. For example, Syrian dentists (2,470) and healthcare professionals (2,160) could help alleviate the labor gap in these sectors.
However, a large number of Syrian refugees are employed in professions with a high demand, such as vehicle mechatronics (4,000), where their departure could exacerbate the existing shortage of skilled workers and lead to supply chain disruptions.
