Powerful figures resist transparency.
In the heart of Russia, the premium real estate market in Moscow is experiencing a unique blend of high demand and slowing growth. This intriguing trend has caught the attention of industry insiders, with Irina Soboleva, Commercial Director of "Balguch Development", and Ekaterina Levina, a top broker at Whitewill, both noting this shift.
According to data from "Kommersant" and "Dom.RF", the total area of apartments sold on the primary real estate market in Russia decreased by 26% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. This trend is echoed in the mass housing segment, where the number of new constructions decreased by 22% year-on-year. However, a surprising twist unfolds in the luxury real estate market. In April 2025, the volume of transactions for purchasing expensive secondary apartments increased by 35% year-on-year, reaching a total of 160 billion rubles in sales for January-June 2025.
The shift from the new-build market to the high-end secondary market is attributed to a lack of supply in the luxury new buildings sector. Some buyers are opting for premium secondary properties, driven by the allure of immediate availability.
The slowdown in new construction is not solely due to the cooling residential market. Developers in the mass housing segment are not rushing to start new constructions, awaiting an easing of monetary credit policy. This cautious approach is also reflected in the premium segment, where the growth of sales is predicted to slow down in 2025.
External financial conditions, particularly mortgage market constraints and shifting investment priorities, are expected to be the primary drivers of this slowdown. The share of mortgage transactions in Moscow’s premium housing market dropped to a historic low of 16% in the first half of 2025, indicating reduced financing availability or appetite for high-end housing purchases via mortgages.
Additionally, investment flows in Russian real estate are shifting away from residential developments towards commercial real estate, contributing to slower growth in new residential projects, including premium housing. Sales of new-build homes overall have declined due to the termination of Russia’s mortgage subsidy program and higher borrowing costs.
Despite these challenges, the premium real estate market continues to show resilience. Deals in luxury real estate are primarily made using personal funds, making the market less sensitive to difficulties in the mortgage market. Alexei Chumalov, CEO of Kalinka Ecosystem, highlights that the available supply in the market is quickly being absorbed.
By the end of 2025, sales of premium new buildings in Moscow are expected to grow by 10-15% year-on-year, reaching 2,4 thousand deals. The predicted slowdown in sales growth is due to the decrease in developer activity. Only four new projects received permits for construction in the premium real estate market in the first half of 2025, which is 64% less than the previous year. This trend of fewer construction permits may continue until the end of 2025, potentially causing a slowdown in the growth of the volume of deals in the premium new buildings market.
In monetary terms, the total volume of sales will increase by 10% year-on-year, reaching 350 billion rubles. Another driver of sales in the premium real estate market is installment plans, providing a flexible financing option for buyers.
Interestingly, most wealthy individuals prefer buying expensive real estate over bank deposits, indicating a strong preference for tangible assets. As the premium real estate market adapts to these shifting conditions, it remains to be seen how this trend will evolve in the coming years.
Investors in the Russian real-estate market, such as Irina Soboleva and Ekaterina Levina, are observing a unique shift from the new-build market to the high-end secondary market, driven by a lack of supply in the luxury new buildings sector and a preference for immediate property availability. Despite the predicted slowdown in sales growth due to decreased developer activity and fewer construction permits, the total volume of sales in the premium real-estate market is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, indicating continued investing interest, and some wealthy individuals are increasingly choosing premium real estate over bank deposits.
The total volume of sales for luxury apartments is reaching significant levels, with 160 billion rubles in transactions for purchasing expensive secondary apartments in January-June 2025, reflecting the finance sector's interest in investing in real estate. However, the share of mortgage transactions in Moscow’s premium housing market has dropped to a historic low of 16%, signaling difficulties in the mortgage market and reduced financing availability or appetite for high-end housing purchases via mortgages.
