Projected Wage Increase in Russia Stands at 14.5%, According to Rosstat Figures
The Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Economic Development have released their predictions for the nominal wage growth in Russia for the period from 2025 to 2028. According to their mid-term outlooks, the average nominal wage growth is expected to be approximately 5.1% per year on average.
In 2024, nominal wages increased by 18.3% to 87,9 thousand rubles. By 2025, analysts predict a more moderate growth, with a nominal wage increase of 12.5%. The Ministry of Economic Development expects the average nominal wage to reach 102,7 thousand rubles (+16.8% year-on-year) by 2025.
The growth of real wages is expected to be 3% in 2025, 8% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, according to analysts. By 2028, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts the average nominal wage to reach 132,9 thousand rubles (+7.3%). However, the Ministry's baseline scenario does not involve a year-on-year increase in real wages in 2026 and 2027.
The growth of wages was most pronounced in industries such as fishing, oil and gas extraction, and pipeline transport activities. In May 2025, the highest salaries were received by workers in the fishing industry (209,7 thousand rubles), oil and gas extraction companies (225,9 thousand rubles), and pipeline transport activities companies (316,6 thousand rubles).
The largest increase in salaries year-on-year was shown by workers employed in companies engaged in printing activities (+25.8% year-on-year; 83,9 thousand rubles).
Expenses for the first half of 2025 increased by 14.9% to 52.4 trillion rubles. The volume of monetary incomes of the population increased by 17.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, amounting to almost 57.3 trillion rubles. Real disposable incomes in 2024 increased by 9.1%. Incomes per person in the first half of 2025 amounted to 68,212 thousand rubles.
It's important to note that the Ministry of Economic Development expects that by 2028, the average nominal wage in Russia will increase by 51%. However, the Ministry does not provide specific predictions for the growth of real wages in 2026 and 2027.
For the most accurate and up-to-date information, it's recommended to consult the latest Bank of Russia or Ministry of Economic Development economic outlook publications directly.
In the mass media forecasts for 2025, analysts predict a slower growth in nominal wages compared to the significant increase in 2024, marking a 12.5% increase over the current average. Additionally, the Ministry of Economic Development anticipates the average nominal wage to be significantly higher by 2028, increasing by 51%, with a predicted average of 132,9 thousand rubles.
