Projects a significant 1.5-fold surge in real wages by the year 2028, as per the Economic Development Department's prediction.
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By 2025-2028, get ready for a massive 51.15% surge in your average Russian wage! According to the word on the street from Vedomosti, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts that we'll be earning a cool 132,940 rubles in 2028, up from the 102,728 rubles in 2025.
The numbers don't lie – In 2024, wages skyrocketed by 18.3% from the previous year, hitting 87,952 rubles. Over the subsequent five years, Vedomosti reveals the increase will be an impressive 51%.
The Ministry's forecast breaks down as follows:
- 102,728 rubles (plus 16.8% year-on-year) in 2025
- 114,420 rubles (11.4% year-on-year) in 2026
- 123,880 rubles (8.3% year-on-year) in 2027
- 132,940 rubles (7.3% year-on-year) in 2028
However, real wage growth, considering inflation, will be more subdued, as per the Ministry's baseline scenario:
- 6.8% growth in 2025
- 5.7% growth in 2026
- 4.1% growth in 2027
- 3.2% growth in 2028
In the conservative forecast scenario, the wage growth will closely resemble that of the baseline variant, deviating only slightly due to the potential escalation of trade wars and a slowed global economy.
Fun fact: The previous forecast, published in September, predicted that the average Russian wage would be 119,296 rubles by 2027. The Ministry expects the workforce to increase from 76.2 million in 2025 to 76.5 million in 2028, with an unemployment rate of a steady 2.5% throughout the forecast period.
Experts consulted by the newspaper caution that while wage growth will remain a significant aspect of enterprise personnel policy, the pace of wage increase may slow down due to cash flow issues at businesses and a general tendency towards saving among consumers. A survey by the Central Bank indicates that 93% of Russian companies indexed their employees' wages in 2024, and only 75% plan to raise their pay in 2025. So, keep your eyes peeled for those paychecks!
- By 2028, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts that the nominal average Russian wage will reach 132,940 rubles, representing a 51.15% surge from 2025's expected average of 102,728 rubles.
- Vedomosti Finance reported that in 2024, wages increased by 18.3% year-on-year, reaching 87,952 rubles.
- In their conservative forecast scenario, the Ministry expects the average Russian wage growth to closely resemble the baseline variant, despite potential trade wars and a slowed global economy.
- Experts cautioned that while wage growth will continue to play a significant role in business, the pace of increase may slow due to cash flow issues at businesses and consumer saving tendencies, according to a survey by the Central Bank. Only 75% of Russian companies plan to raise employee wages in 2025, down from 93% in 2024.
