Putin's Strategic Slip-ups on the Fringes - Putin's Struggle to Hang On to His Outer Regions
Central Asia, a region once under the Soviet Union's influence, is experiencing a significant transformation as former Soviet republics, notably Kazakhstan, are incrementally reducing dependence on Russia. This shift is driven by a multi-vector foreign policy approach that balances relations among Russia, China, the West, and others.
Kazakhstan, a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, has been pragmatic in its stance towards Russia. While it remains within the union, Kazakhstan has refused to fully adopt Western sanctions on Russia if they harm its economy, reflecting a balanced approach rather than a clear pivot away from Moscow. However, Kazakhstan’s deepening cooperation with China, including awarding China the construction of two out of three planned nuclear power plants, signals a strategic tilt towards Beijing and growing autonomy in regional diplomacy.
Russia, concerned about losing influence, is responding by intensifying diplomatic efforts. Putin’s early foreign visits post-Ukraine war to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, and the creation of structures like the “Central Asia Plus” mechanism, are examples of Russia’s efforts to reinforce ties. However, Russia’s economic leverage is challenged by China’s rise and Kazakhstan’s diversification of partnerships. The Ukraine war has exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s energy and financial capabilities, leading to difficulties for entities like Russia’s Rosatom in delivering nuclear projects abroad, while China’s energy companies gain ground.
Economically, Central Asian states still rely heavily on the Soviet-era energy grid linked to Russia. However, Kazakhstan’s engagement with multiple foreign partners in its energy sector—including South Korea and France—signals an intent to hedge risks by diversifying away from exclusive dependence on Russia. This diversification is partly driven by concerns about the consequences of sanctions and the disruptions caused by the Ukraine conflict.
The West’s use of sanctions risks alienating Central Asia further, complicating geopolitical alignments in the region. Imposing secondary sanctions on Central Asian states that continue economic ties with Russia could push these countries closer to Moscow out of economic necessity and resentment towards the West.
In the Caucasus, Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet republics, held a "peace summit" at the White House. Armenia, which had previously relied on Russia as its "protector," is breaking away from Russia due to being betrayed by Vladimir Putin in the last war with Azerbaijan. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are investing in a joint infrastructure project called the "Trump Corridor" that aims to connect Azerbaijan's exclave of Nakhichevan to the rest of the republic.
Meanwhile, in Georgia, a direct neighbor of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Putin is trying to block the way to Europe with the help of a billionaire who makes most of his money in Russia. The Republic of Tajikistan, traditionally poor and economically tied to Russia, is experiencing cases of forced conscription for the front in Ukraine among its guest workers in Russia.
The supply chains from former Soviet republics to the EU could quickly reverse if Vladimir Putin wins the Ukraine War, resulting in strong pressure for these countries to return under Russian control. However, Germany's exports to Kazakhstan have surged over the past two years, and oil from Azerbaijan is increasingly flowing into the EU.
China exerts a great attraction on the five former Soviet republics in Central Asia, and Turkey also attracts Central Asian countries. The ongoing Ukrainian War, led by Putin, is a significant factor in these shifts.
References: [1] Artis, A. (2023). Central Asia's Shift Eastwards: The New Great Game. The Diplomat. [2] Bader, J. (2022). Kazakhstan's Balancing Act: Pragmatism and Autonomy in Foreign Policy. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. [3] Chauvin, L. (2023). Kazakhstan's Nuclear Ambitions: A Strategic Shift Towards China. The National Interest. [4] Fleming, P. (2022). Central Asia's Economic Dilemma: Balancing Between Russia and the West. The Jamestown Foundation. [5] Lemon, D. (2023). Russia's Energy Challenges in Central Asia. The Diplomat.
- The European Union, as the economic powerhouse it is, has a significant role to play in the energy sector of Central Asia, considering Kazakhstan's growing cooperation with China and diversification of partnerships.
- Finance and business communities in the European Union closely watch the politically charged war-and-conflicts in the region, particularly the ongoing Ukrainian War, as they impact migration and economic stability.
- In the shifting landscape of Central Asia, the European Union's policy-and-legislation, including its stance on energy, migration, and war-and-conflicts, will have a decisive effect on the balance of power among Russia, China, the West, and other players.
- Migration patterns in Central Asia are influenced by the economic opportunities offered by the European Union, especially in the oil-and-gas and other industries, as countries like Kazakhstan seek to diversify their partnerships and reduce dependence on Russia.
- The European Union's approach towards war-and-conflicts and general-news in Central Asia, particularly its stance on Russia, China, and the Ukraine war, will have far-reaching implications for the future of the energy, finance, and business sectors in the region.
