Ruben Amorim's Challenges Highlight the Professional Peril of Midseason Transfers
Manchester United concluded 2024 with four consecutive defeats.
Post-a 2-0 home loss against Newcastle United, Ruben Amorim faced a question from BBC Sport if United were battling relegation. He responded, "I think it's a possibility."
With a seven-point cushion between United and the relegation zone, the Red Devils would have to perform dismally in the second half of the season to potentially fall to relegation, with the exception of Southampton.
The fact that Amorim is even considering such an outcome highlights his predicament.
In the beginning of 2024, Amorim was regarded as one of Europe's most promising coaches. However, his spell at Manchester United could potentially leave a lasting stain on his reputation, with some even speculating that he could be dismissed prior to the season's end.
It is believed that Amorim had preferred to join the club during the summer. Now, he may be second-guessing that decision.
Manchester United is a titan of a club, making a turnaround is not simple, even when everyone can see the impending disaster.
Joining mid-season, Amorim has restricted training sessions to influence the team's playstyle and has not yet managed to bring in his own players.
The difference between joining in the summer and mid-season can be observed with high-flying Nottingham Forest.
Nuno Espirito Santo took a gamble joining Forest mid-season last year and almost paid the price. His record in the first seven Premier League games was similar to Amorim's this season, and following his managerial boost, Forest managed only two wins in the subsequent 14 games.
Although fans saw traces of the transformation in style Nuno was aiming for, it was not far-fetched that he could have been sacked during the summer. Fortunately for him, Forest granted him a preseason, which they felt was essential, and that played a significant role in the club's remarkable season this year.
Mid-season appointments are usually done by clubs in relegation battles, seeking even a temporary boost to survive. The new manager bounce can sometimes suffice for survival - two of Nuno's six wins came within his first three games at Forest.
Clubs intending to challenge for European places try out consistent victories, and consistent victories don't emerge from temporary fixes.
In the past five seasons, clubs aspiring to challenge for European places have made seven unforced mid-season appointments, whereas clubs battling relegation have made over twenty head coach changes.
Of the seven appointments, three were relieved of their duties by the summer.
Some mid-season appointments have prospered, like Thomas Tuchel's UEFA Champions League victory with Chelsea.
Others have been given time to recover. Mikel Arteta won just one of his first seven league matches at Arsenal. He ended his first season at the Gunners with an FA Cup win, but it took him several seasons before Arsenal were genuine league title contenders again.
When governance is missing, the incoming head coach might be held accountable for difficulties preceding their arrival.
Graham Potter was seen as the next promising coach when he joined Chelsea in September 2022. The bloated squad further complicated his task. If given a preseason to learn about Chelsea's players and make critical decisions regarding their retention, he may have fared better at Stamford Bridge. Instead, his tenure lasted only 31 games and he remains jobless following his dismissal by Chelsea.
Despite Chelsea being an almost insurmountable challenge that season, Potter is still struggling to recover from the reputational blow of his ill-fated stint in west London. Amorim is not to blame for the mess at Old Trafford, but he could suffer the same reputation damage as Potter did.
Manchester United's most recent mid-season hire, Ralf Rangnick in 2021/22, was supposed to oversee long-term strategy at Old Trafford after stepping down as head coach. This role potentially could have turned the MUFC tanker around. However, Rangnick's abysmal mid-season stint as head coach made this strategy untenable.
United finished the 2021/22 Premier League season with their worst-ever points total, 58 points. Such a form to break this record requiring an extraordinary 19 game win-streak this season. Rangnick's diagnosis that United required major heart surgery, not a quick fix, seems truer with each passing day.
To make a mark at Manchester United, Amorim needs a preseason, but the question is, will he last that long?
If he doesn't receive the time to establish himself, Amorim's struggles at Manchester could discourage emerging coaching talents from accepting dream jobs at major clubs mid-season.
Despite Manchester United's seven-point cushion, the team's poor performance has led coach Ruben Amorim to consider the possibility of relegation. This is a stark contrast to the beginning of the year, where Amorim was celebrated as one of Europe's most promising coaches. If Amorim's tenure at Old Trafford ends prematurely, it could leave a lasting impact on his reputation, much like what happened to Ralf Rangnick, who joined Manchester United as a mid-season hire in 2021/22 and struggled to turn the team's fortunes around.
