Russtat forecasts a 14.5% wage increase in Russia
Moderate Real Wage Growth Predicted for Russia Through 2028
Russia is expected to see a moderate increase in real wages over the next few years, according to forecasts by the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Economic Development.
In the first half of 2025, the volume of monetary incomes of the population increased by 17.5% year-on-year, amounting to almost 57.3 trillion rubles. However, expenses also rose by 14.9% to 52.4 trillion rubles, leaving real disposable incomes with a 9.1% increase, taking into account inflation.
The average nominal wage in Russia stood at 87,9 thousand rubles in 2024, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year. By 2025, the average nominal wage is expected to reach 102,7 thousand rubles (+16.8% year-on-year).
Analysts predict a more moderate growth of wages in 2025 compared to 2024, with a growth of 8% in 2026 and 7% in 2027. The Bank of Russia projects that real wages in Russia will grow moderately through 2026–2028, with an inflation rate declining to 4% by 2026. However, precise real wage growth rates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are not explicitly provided in the available data.
The Ministry of Economic Development predicts that the average nominal wage in Russia will increase by 51% by 2028. As a result, real wages in Russia are expected to increase by 6.8% in 2025, 3.2% by 2028, and 2.6% per year in 2026 and 2027.
It's worth noting that the salaries of workers employed in companies engaged in printing activities showed the largest increase (+25.8% year-on-year; 83,9 thousand rubles). In May 2025, the highest salaries were received by workers in the fishing industry (209,7 thousand rubles), oil and gas extraction companies (225,9 thousand rubles), and pipeline transportation activities companies (316,6 thousand rubles).
Despite these projections, the precise growth rates of real wages for 2026, 2027, and 2028 according to the Bank of Russia and Ministry of Economic Development are not explicitly provided in the available data. This is partly due to the fact that the available data mostly covers inflation projections and broader economic scenarios rather than specific wage growth percentages.
The predicted growth in real wages in Russia throughout 2025-2028 is influenced by the economy's financial health, as stated in the Bank of Russia and Ministry of Economic Development's forecasts. Businesses in various sectors, such as printing, fishing, oil and gas extraction, and pipeline transportation, might witness changes in their financial situation depending on the growth of real wages.
