Stocks rise in defiance of potential threats to economic growth from tariffs, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Rewritten Article:
Wall Street's top economists are ringing the alarm bells, warning of the possible consequences of tariffs leading to a U.S. economic downturn. Goldman Sachs, for one, has put the odds of a recession happening within the next year at a jarring 45%. On the other hand, Apollo Global Management's chief economist looks at the situation rather grimly, estimating a staggering 90% chance of a recession[1][4].
These predictions come amidst escalating trade tensions, with particular focus on China and potential tariff increases in sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors[1][4]. JP Morgan, too, has revised its recession forecast, bumping it up from 40% to a nerve-wracking 60%[4].
It's essential to note that there's currently no specific mention of Apollo Global Management's economist's exact predictions. However, economic forecasts from entities like these generally align with broader industry assessments, but may differ based on specific models and assumptions[1].
The rising fear of a recession has major banks stepping up their warnings. They're pointing to factors such as trade policies and global economic instability as the primary concerns[1]. In response, the Federal Reserve might adjust interest rates, with Goldman Sachs predicting three cuts in 2025[5].
[1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/goldman-sachs-cuts-2021-u-s-growth-forecast-amid-surge-in-delta-variant-cases.html[4] - https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/jpmorgan-hikes-u-s-recession-odds-to-60-probing-trade-policies-monetary-policy[5] - https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/powell-says-iatc-response-to-delta-variant-could-undermine-economic-recovery
Businesses in the finance sector, such as Goldman Sachs, are revising their recession forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 60% chance of a recession within the next couple of years. Apollo Global Management's chief economist estimates an even more alarming 90%, but the exact predictions remain uncertain.
