The Challenging Task Lies in Transferring Nolan Arenado from the Cardinals
John Mozeliak, the St. Louis Cardinals' president of baseball operations, showed honesty recently. When directly asked if he'd trade third baseman Nolan Arenado, he acknowledged, "I aim to try."
The Cardinals saw an improvement in 2024, jumping from a 2023 record of 71-91 to 83 victories. However, they're still far from their powerhouse status since 2000. It's commonly believed that the team intends to cut payroll and go younger, and Mozeliak confirmed this to Katie Woo from The Athletic, stating that the team would have a "different profile" in 2025.
This implies that Arenado might not fit into the team's future plans. He's a potential future Hall of Fame third baseman who's had an impressive career playing for both the Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies. With 12 seasons under his belt, he's bagged three home run titles, 10 Gold Gloves, six Platinum Gloves, eight All-Star selections, and five Silver Sluggers. His 56.7 WAR (according to Baseball-Reference) positions him 21st among all-time third basemen. 13 players ahead of him are already in the Hall of Fame, while two more are yet to be eligible.
However, Arenado will turn 34 in April, and it seems like his best years are behind him. He managed 2.4 and 2.5 WAR in 2023 and 2024 respectively, making him a solid starter, but no longer a superstar. He's contracted for another three seasons with salaries of $32 million, $27 million, and $15 million, but the Rockies will cover $5 million in the next two years. Still, the $64 million for a declining player in his 34-36 years is a heavy burden.
His trade becomes complicated due to a full no-trade clause in the eight-year extension he signed with the Rockies in 2019. He waived this clause to move to St. Louis in 2021, but the Cardinals added another guaranteed year and an opt-out after 2022 (which he declined). If asked to move again, he might demand better contract terms.
His performance in 2024 was less than exceptional. He only hit 16 home runs and his slugging percentage fell below .400 for the first time, to .394. This was significantly lower than his career slugging percentage of .515. His OPS+ was around league-average, but it illustrated a declining trend.
Advanced metrics also suggested that his batting power was decreasing. His average exit velocity dropped from 88.8 mph in 2023 to 86.3 mph in 2024, placing him in the 9th percentile in MLB. His hard-hit rate also dropped from 38.1% to 31.6%.
Despite his reduced batting power, his defensive skills at third base still impress. He told Woo in November that he'd be open to moving to first base with a new team, indicating he might waive his no-trade clause. However, a large portion of his value remains tied to his third-base defense. With mediocre offense, he's less beneficial if he's not playing third. Furthermore, he didn't state if he'd require financial incentives for a trade.
When the Rockies transferred him to St. Louis, they had to compensate up to $51 million to cover his salary. Four years later, the Cardinals might have to pay a portion of his remaining contract if they want to trade him. This additional complication further complicates any potential Arenado trade negotiations.
The St. Louis Cardinals' consideration of payroll reduction and a younger team structure has brought Nolan Arenado's future with the Cardinals into question. Despite his impressive career with the St. Louis Cardinals and previously with the Colorado Rockies, Arenado, with his full no-trade clause, might need better contract terms if he's to be traded from the St. Louis Cardinals, as indicated by his contract and his past willingness to waive the clause.
