The Russian currency, the ruble, is expected to trade at approximately 83 US dollars in the month of July.
The Russian ruble is predicted to weaken against the US dollar in the latter half of 2025, according to a series of forecasts released by analysts and the Russian Central Bank.
By Q3 2025, the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate is expected to hover around 0.0113 USD per RUB or approximately 78-80 RUB per USD, largely due to active currency sales by exporters and a high Central Bank key interest rate of 20%. By Q4 2025, the exchange rate is anticipated to reach around 0.0115 USD per RUB or 100-105 RUB per USD, indicating a potential weakening of the ruble.
According to a survey conducted by the Russian Central Bank in April 2025, the average USD/RUB rate is predicted to be around 95.2 to 100 by the end of 2025. Investment banks like Goldman Sachs have forecasted the ruble hitting 100 RUB per USD as early as summer 2025.
The ruble's recent strength is considered temporary, with risks of depreciation from factors such as the possible lifting of capital controls if a peace agreement with Ukraine is signed, leading to capital outflows and forced interest rate cuts by the Central Bank to support a slowing economy.
Key influencing factors shaping the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate in 2025 include the Central Bank of Russia's key interest rate, oil prices, currency sales by exporters, geopolitical situation, and monetary and fiscal policy adjustments.
The internal demand for currency is influenced by a combination of tight monetary policy and high key rates. The exchange rate forecast was made on June 30, 2025, and the expert did not specify the currency that the national currency is compared to in the forecast. The monthly volume of currency purchases is around 1.5 trillion rubles, compared to the median value of around 3 trillion rubles at the end of last year.
Vladislav Alexandrov, an expert from ALT3 Capital, has forecasted the cost of the national currency. Alexandrov expects a more pronounced weakening of the ruble by the end of the second half of 2025. The market remains illiquid, making it prone to sharp fluctuations, according to the expert.
The influence of geopolitical escalation in the Middle East on the ruble's course is not decisive, as per Alexandrov. The national currency is not expected to significantly strengthen in July, according to Vladislav Alexandrov. The volume of imports is still insufficient for a stable demand for currency. These factors curb imports, as stated by Alexandrov.
The ruble's course is also determined by internal demand for currency. The volatility in the oil market in June has been mitigated by the budget rule, according to Alexandrov. Vladislav Alexandrov has stated that the course of the national currency is unlikely to exceed 83 rubles per dollar. Sharper fluctuations in the exchange rate are possible, but unlikely without new factors.
[1] Source: Central Bank of Russia's survey from April 2025 [2] Source: Various analyst reports [3] Source: RIA Novosti executive director of ALT3 Capital, Vladislav Alexandrov, forecast, June 30, 2025, 13:39
- Despite the temporary strength of the Russian ruble, investing experts from Goldman Sachs predict a significant weakening of the currency, with the ruble reaching 100 RUB per USD as early as summer 2025.
- In personal-finance terms, the anticipated weakening of the ruble against the US dollar in Q4 2025 means that the value of rubles held by investors may decrease if not properly managed.
- The business climate in Russia could be impacted by the potential depreciation of the ruble, as a weaker domestic currency may negatively affect the profitability of businesses that operate in the finance, industry, and export sectors.
