Titles: Unchanged Prices for Ukrainian Supplies
The German government's plan to provide welfare benefits to new Ukrainian refugees under the Asylum Seekers' Benefits Act instead of the Citizen's Allowance (Bürgergeld) is not expected to result in significant savings, according to the Ministry of Social Affairs.
The proposed change, effective from April 1, 2025, would reduce monthly benefits for new Ukrainian arrivals by about €100 per person compared to the Citizen's Allowance. However, the number of new arrivals is relatively small compared to the existing Ukrainian refugee population.
Approximately 1.2 million refugees from Ukraine have come to Germany since 2022, while only around 21,000 arrived from April to June 2025. This limited the cost-saving scope of the benefit reduction as it affects only a small portion of the total refugee population.
Additionally, around 64.1% of Ukrainian nationals registered with the labor agency remain unemployed or otherwise not economically active, indicating sustained expenditure on social support beyond newly arriving refugees. While the government aims to reduce welfare spending, the modest per-person savings multiplied by a small number of new arrivals means overall welfare expenditures will not decrease significantly.
Minister Steffens had predicted that the policy change would not result in significant savings. The Ministry of Social Affairs expects a decrease in costs for citizens' allowance, basic security, and assistance for living expenses, amounting to approximately 1.32 billion euros in 2026. However, the Ministry also expects additional costs for benefits under the Asylum Seekers' Benefits Act to amount to 1.375 billion euros in 2026.
The welfare benefits offered will be lower than the citizens' allowance, with singles receiving 441 euros compared to 563 euros. The draft bill for the policy change is currently undergoing interdepartmental consultation with other federal government departments. After consultation, the draft will be presented to the cabinet, and then to the Bundestag for approval.
Since the cut-off date of April 1, around 21,000 Ukrainians have arrived, for whom the new regulation could apply. It's important to note that the change will not affect the right of Ukrainians to start working immediately, or the requirement for them not to submit asylum applications.
The policy change is part of the so-called change of legal status, as planned by the black-red coalition. As of May, around 332,000 of the 1.2 million refugees from Ukraine are in employment. In 2024, 6.3 billion euros were paid out to Ukrainians in citizens' allowance.
In conclusion, the relatively low number of new Ukrainian arrivals eligible for the reduced benefits compared to the large existing population receiving higher benefits limits the potential fiscal impact of the change. The significant unemployment rate among Ukrainian refugees constrains overall welfare savings, maintaining a high baseline welfare cost.
The suggested policy change in Germany's welfare benefits for new Ukrainian refugees is expected to have minimal impact on fiscal savings, given the small number of new arrivals compared to the existing Ukrainian refugee population. The change, however, may influence general-news, business, and politics discourses due to its association with the ongoing Ukrainian refugee crisis and the government's efforts to manage social expenditures.
