Trade-related imports in the United States forecast to plummet significantly in 2025 due to the impact of tariffs on international transactions.
In the current global trade landscape, tariffs that have recently come into effect are causing significant disruptions. According to a report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, these tariffs are expected to result in a 5.6% drop in U.S. container imports in 2025 [1].
This reduction in import cargo volume is placing strain on supply chains, with major ports experiencing reduced flows of goods. The increased costs for U.S. importers due to these tariffs are translating into higher consumer prices. Estimates suggest that overall price levels will rise by approximately 1.8% in the short term, resulting in an average household income loss equivalent to around $2,400 in 2025 dollars due to higher prices [5].
Small businesses are particularly affected, grappling with increased operational costs, inventory challenges, and a reduced ability to compete due to tariff-driven price hikes [1]. Supply chains are also affected by increased volatility and inefficiencies, with logistical disruptions at ports causing congestion, schedule unpredictability, and slower cargo transfers, intensifying supply chain difficulties [4].
Despite some consumers not yet feeling the full price impact due to warehouses being stocked before tariff escalations, depletion of these stocks will soon reveal more visible price increases on store shelves [4]. Meanwhile, ongoing legal challenges concerning the tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could affect future tariff policies and shipping demand, with court rulings potentially easing tariffs and improving import flows should tariffs be struck down or refunded [2].
The tariffs have been described as erratic by Hackett Associates' founder Ben Hackett, with "on-again, off-again tariffs" distorting trade patterns [3]. Steep year-over-year declines are forecast for the remainder of 2025, with the sharpest drop-21.1%-expected in November [2]. In June 2025, major U.S. ports handled 1.96 million TEUs, a decrease of 8.4% compared to the previous year [6].
Jonathan Gold of the NRF stated that fewer imports would mean fewer goods on store shelves, higher prices, and more strain on small businesses [7]. July volumes surged to an estimated 2.3 million TEUs as retailers raced to beat August tariff deadlines [7]. The first half of 2025 saw a 3.6% year-over-year rise in volumes, but the projected second-half slump would push the annual total to 24.1 million TEUs, down from 25.5 million in 2024 [7].
A separate BIMCO report shows U.S. tariff rates spiked to 26% in April before settling at 17.6% in August [8]. These combined effects highlight broad negative consequences for trade, logistics, businesses, and consumers resulting from the 2025 tariff landscape.
References:
- Global Port Tracker Report
- Tariff Challenges and Their Potential Impact on U.S. Trade
- Hackett Associates' Founder on Tariffs
- Tariffs and Their Impact on Supply Chains
- Economic Costs of Tariffs
- U.S. Port Volume Data
- NRF Comments on Tariff Impact
- BIMCO Report on U.S. Tariff Rates
- The current tariffs in the global trade landscape are causing significant disruptions in the container shipping industry, particularly for small businesses, as they grapple with increased costs, inventory challenges, and a reduced ability to compete due to tariff-driven price hikes.
- The increased costs from tariffs are contributing to the volatility and inefficiencies in global supply chains, leading to logistical disruptions at major ports, such as congestion, schedule unpredictability, and slower cargo transfers, intensifying supply chain difficulties.
- The tariffs' impact on business extends to finance, as overall price levels are projected to rise by approximately 1.8% in the short term, resulting in an average household income loss equivalent to around $2,400 in 2025 dollars due to higher prices.
