US-bound Mexican exports climb 6.3% during first half of 2025
In a significant move to stabilise trade relations, Mexico has negotiated a 90-day suspension of additional U.S. tariffs, scheduled to start on August 1, 2025. This temporary reprieve comes as a result of discussions between the two nations, aimed at addressing trade concerns and paving the way for a more stable future agreement.
The U.S. exports increased by 5% to reach $1.08 trillion in the first half of the year, while Mexico's share of the U.S. market fell slightly from 15.9% in 2024 to 15% in the same period of 2025. This decrease can be attributed, in part, to a global rise in U.S. imports, causing Mexico's market share to shrink.
Mexico's exports to the United States in the first half of 2025 reached $264.38 billion, marking a 6.3% increase over the same period last year. Despite the reduced market share, Mexico remained the U.S.'s largest trading partner in the first half of 2025, with Canada in second place, accounting for 13% of the U.S. market. China followed closely behind, holding a 7.9% market share.
The differential in Mexican exports and imports caused Mexico's trade surplus with the United States to increase by 16.7% to $96.21 billion. However, this surplus is edging closer to China's, which fell 12.4% year-over-year to $111.48 billion.
Trade tensions between the two countries have been escalating, with Trump imposing 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper imports, and 25% on automobiles and certain auto parts from Mexico. He has also introduced 25% tariffs on non-USMCA products, which could increase to 30% unless Mexican President Sheinbaum can convince him not to raise the tariffs by the October deadline.
In response to these tariffs, Mexico encouraged its nation's companies to "buy American" as part of their negotiation strategy. The trade surplus between the United States and Mexico has been one of Trump's pretexts for his aggressive trade stance toward Mexico.
Mexico's approach to achieve permanent tariff relief after negotiations with the United States involves securing a bilateral agreement to suspend new U.S. tariffs temporarily while committing to eliminate non-tariff barriers and negotiate a new trade agreement within the suspension period. Key points of this approach include:
- The 90-day suspension prevents the additional 30% tariffs from taking effect immediately, providing time for dialogue and negotiation.
- Mexico committed to eliminating non-tariff barriers that affect U.S. goods, addressing U.S. concerns beyond just tariffs.
- Both countries agreed to initiate and conclude negotiations on a new trade agreement within the suspension timeframe to prevent tariffs from being reinstated thereafter.
- Mexico avoided retaliatory tariffs and prioritised dialogue and collaboration, forming a permanent binational working group involving several Mexican ministries and U.S. counterparts to explore alternative solutions protecting businesses and jobs.
- The existing tariffs under the USMCA and others on steel, aluminum, and autos remain in place; this deal specifically targets the newly announced 30% tariff.
By focusing on diplomacy and negotiation, Mexico aims to find a lasting resolution that ensures tariff relief from the U.S. side and preserves trade stability between the two countries.
- The proposed bilateral agreement between Mexico and the United States could potentially impact the finance industry, as the suspension of new tariffs temporarily provides a more stable future for businesses involved in trade between these two countries.
- The general-news headlines this week have been filled with business news about the trade negotiations between Mexico and the United States, as both countries strive to address trade concerns and push for a new agreement that would reduce tariffs and eliminate non-tariff barriers.
- In the realm of politics, the tariff negotiations between Mexico and the United States are closely watched by experts and observers, as the outcome could have significant impacts on the respective industries and economies of both nations.
