Wheat Experiences a Slight Uptick during the Morning of Wednesday
As the wheat harvest season approaches, the global market shows a mixed but generally stable outlook. The U.S. wheat market, in particular, is forecast to see increased exports, firm demand, and steady prices around $5.05 per bushel.
According to the latest reports, U.S. wheat exports are expected to reach 875 million bushels in the 2025/26 marketing year, marking the highest level since 2020/21. This boost is primarily due to strong Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat sales to various countries, including Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, and Bangladesh.
Despite the promising U.S. export figures, global wheat production is forecast to decrease in 2025/26, mainly due to reduced output in China, Brazil, and Argentina. This decrease is partially offset by increased production in the European Union.
In terms of prices, the U.S. season-average farm price is forecast to decrease slightly to $5.30 per bushel. Prices for Hard Red Spring (HR) have fallen due to global supply pressure, while Soft Red Winter (SRW) prices have dipped as the harvest nears. However, Hard Red Winter (HRW) prices have risen on strong export demand.
The wheat futures market reflects tightening global supplies but strong U.S. export performance and steady prices, tempered by ample supplies from major producers like Russia. The outlook cautiously balances firm demand against weather and geopolitical uncertainties influencing production and trade flows.
On September 25, the CBOT Wheat closed at $5.05, down 10 cents. However, on the same day, KCBT Wheat was up 1 1/2 cents and 2 3/4 cents, respectively. As of Wednesday, wheat prices are trading with slight gains across three markets.
Key developments in the wheat market include the USDA trimming the U.S. wheat production total by 2 mbu to 1.927 billion bushels. Exports were hiked by 25 mbu in the Crop Production report, while new crop carryout was trimmed by 21 mbu to 869 mbu.
In international news, a South Korean importer purchased 50,000 MT of wheat in their tender overnight. Weather conditions continue to play a significant role in the market, with generally favourable conditions in key growing regions such as the U.S. Midwest and parts of Europe. However, there are regional stresses, such as heat waves in southern France and dry patches in India.
In conclusion, the wheat commodity market in August 2025 reflects tightening global supplies but strong U.S. export performance and steady prices, tempered by ample supplies from major producers like Russia. The outlook cautiously balances firm demand against weather and geopolitical uncertainties influencing production and trade flows.
Investors in the wheat commodity market may find opportunities with the U.S.'s projected increased wheat exports due to strong Hard Red Winter (HRW) sales, despite a global forecasted decrease in wheat production. The steady prices of U.S. wheat around $5.05 per bushel, as shown by the CBOT Wheat closing at $5.05 on September 25, may attract further investment in the sector.
