Wheat maintains a steady pace during the early hours of Wednesday.
In the mid-2025 wheat market, a pattern of increased global production and expanding trade volumes is taking shape. This trend is marked by key contributions from the United States and the European Union, despite some regional challenges affecting supply and demand dynamics.
### Production Estimates
The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 is set to rise by approximately 1%, led by strong recoveries in the European Union, Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Russia’s yields are projected to rebound from the previous year, despite weather-related constraints, while Canadian wheat acreage has increased slightly, partly due to shifts from canola planting caused by tariffs.
The EU’s wheat production is forecasted to strongly rebound, with France’s soft wheat production expected to increase by 27% compared to last year's rain-damaged crop, reaching 32.6 million metric tons. In contrast, Brazil’s wheat harvest forecast for 2025/26 was reduced to 7.81 million metric tons due to decreased planted area, despite expected productivity gains.
The U.S. winter wheat planting is expected to rise by 2% to 34.1 million acres, reversing earlier longer-term declining trends, with slight increases projected across hard red winter, soft red winter, and white winter varieties.
### Trade and Stock Levels
Global wheat supplies are increasing, but due to a slightly faster pace of consumption growth, overall world stocks are projected to decline modestly in 2025/26, primarily reflecting a notable decline in Chinese wheat stocks. Excluding China, global stocks are expected to rise to about 138.2 million metric tons, a second consecutive yearly increase.
Wheat trade for 2025/26 is projected to grow by approximately 4% compared to the previous year, though recent revisions tempered earlier optimism due to some reductions in expected volumes. U.S. wheat exports are forecasted to rise by 25 million bushels to 850 million bushels, the highest export level since 2020/21, reflecting strong demand and export sales momentum. Mexico remains a key buyer of U.S. wheat, highlighting continued robust North American trade flows.
### Prices and Market Outlook
Wheat prices are forecasted to decrease by about 5% in 2025 due to the increased global supply and are expected to stabilize in 2026. The World Bank projects wheat prices around $265 per metric ton for 2025 and 2026. Prices still face some support potential from possible Chinese wheat import demand later in the year, should domestic production fall short of projections.
### Recent Market Action
On Wednesday AM trade, wheat showed mixed action. The Brugler500 index was up 8 points to 345. Current CBOT Wheat is down 1 cent from its closing price on December 25, while MGEX Wheat closed at $6.21 1/4 on December 25, down 2 1/4 cents. A Taiwan wheat importer purchased a total of 89,650 MT of wheat from the US in their tender overnight.
In the futures market, KCBT Wheat closed at $5.23 3/4 on September 25, up 3/4 cent, and is currently down 1/4 cent from its closing price on December 25. Meanwhile, MGEX Wheat closed at $6.01 1/4 on September 25, down 2 1/2 cents, and is currently up 1 cent from its closing price on December 25.
### Summary
The wheat market in mid-2025 is navigating higher global production and expanding trade volumes, with U.S. exports and EU production key contributors. Despite some regional weather challenges and shifts in crop acreage, the supply surplus is expected to put downward pressure on prices, which are projected to decline moderately and then stabilize. Monitoring Chinese import behavior will be critical for future price direction. This comprehensive picture reflects a predominantly bullish production scenario, tempered by cautious demand growth and moderate price easing in the near term.
- In terms of finance, the global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 is set to rise by approximately 1%, with significant contributions from key regions like the European Union, Russia, Canada, and Argentina.
- The expansion of trade volumes in the wheat market, including an expected increase in U.S. wheat exports, may have financial implications as prices are forecasted to decline moderately in 2025, and then stabilize in 2026.
